716
FXUS61 KBTV 051743
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer conditions are expected over the rest of this weekend with
high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday.
A cold front will shift south on Monday bringing higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms, followed by more seasonable
temperatures. The rest of the week will feature hit-or-miss,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 142 AM EDT Saturday...Little weather activity is happening
today, other than increasing warmth. Temperatures will rise into the
80s, except some holdouts in the Northeast Kingdom that just miss
the 80 degree mark. Comfortable humidity should make this a perfect
summer weather day! South flow overnight will yield warm
temperatures, tonight. The broader valleys could remain above
70, while sheltered sections of the Adirondacks and eastern
Vermont will fall into the lower 60s.

Then, it becomes another short-lived outbreak of heat. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the Champlain Valley due to heat and
humidity producing heat indices up to 98 F during the afternoon. Be
mindful of heat illnesses during outdoor recreation, drink plenty of
water, seek shade often and take several breaks.

As ridging continues to build on Sunday, 925mb temperatures climb
into the mid 20s C, which is supportive of upper 80s to mid 90s.
Fortunately, the quick build up means that we won`t yet have the
upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints in place. However, with temperatures
already as high as they are, we`ll very likely observe heat indices
in excess of 95 in the Champlain Valley. Outside that, though, the
probabilities appear somewhat lower. With the heat and humidity, we
should sufficiently destabilize to produce isolated to locally
scattered convection. The ridge axis is still building overhead. So
there`s not much in the way of forcing or upward motion. Mostly
garden variety activity should take place. By Sunday night, a
frontal axis will approach the region and an increasing low-level
jet should support isentropic ascent. Showers will increase along
the international border, and there`s enough elevated instability
that there could still be some thunder. With this, expect
overnight/Monday morning temperatures to be in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 142 AM EDT Saturday...There`s some forecast uncertainty with
how a cold front shifts south on Monday. Ensemble temperature spread
is quite high. This could be a result of differences depicting
the ridging upstream from current Tropical Depression 3. I`ve
been on the receiving end of a tropical system slowing a front
down and having to make larger adjustments as a result. At this
time, model consensus appears relatively good with a frontal
passage over the latter half of Monday. This means there will be
continued heat and humidity, especially over Vermont, while the
international border and much of northern New York remains in
cloud and begins to pick up a northwest wind during the
afternoon keeping things closer to 80. However, there could be
some wiggle room as we approach Monday afternoon. A sluggish
front with 2" PWATs will need to be watched. However, 500mb flow
will be relatively fast for this time of year at 40-45 knots.
This will help keep activity moving, but this means that we
will have about 35 knots of shear present while we develop about
1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE potentially along a sharp thermal
boundary, which would be enough to allow for some organized
convection. We`ll monitor closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...The long term forecast heading into
mid to late week looks to begin an unsettled period of weather.
Temperatures will remain slightly above average with humid, but
not oppressive air. Confluent flow created by high pressure
over the deep south, and a broad trough over central/eastern
Canada will draw shower and thunder chances through much of mid-
late week. The best chances for any dry days will be Tuesday
and Wednesday as moisture will take time to recover behind the
Monday afternoon. A few shortwaves look ride along the upper-
level trough Thursday and Friday. However, the amplification of
the main trough still remains uncertain amongst the ensembles.
The GEFS and GEPS indicate a more broad trough which would allow
for daily precipitation chances from periodic shortwave
passages. However, the EPS is more amplified with a more defined
precipitation chance Thursday afternoon. The interaction
between the Monday afternoon boundary and current Tropical Storm
Chantal will help give a better picture as to what the upper-
level flow pattern will be going forward. While no impacts are
expected from Chantal, a slower system will stall the boundary
across southern New England and lead to a quasi- stationary
blocking pattern, whereas a more progressive system will keep
moisture moving leading to potentially drier conditions Tuesday
and Wednesday. We will continue to monitor any changes going
forward.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the entire TAF period at all terminals. Mid-upper level clouds from
some showers and storms earlier across eastern Ontario, along
with some haze and smoke are drifting across the region. No
terminal impacts are expected, but the haze and smoke may lead
to brief vsby reductions to 6SM. Otherwise, calm conditions are
expected with a brief light shower possible at MSS/EFK through
the evening, though no impacts are expected. Winds will be
south/southwesterly generally near 10 knots west of the Greens,
and variable east of the Greens through the next 18 hours.
Tomorrow, gusts will increase from the southwest at MSS/SLK to
near 25 kts by 16-18Z ahead of a frontal boundary. The LLWS
threat has decreased, with the exception of a brief period
overnight at PBG.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig