870
FXUS61 KBTV 020222
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After precipitation clears the region tonight, conditions will trend
dry for Wednesday. A larger upper level low will shift southeast on
Thursday, with a sharper cold front that will produce
additional showers and thunderstorms late Thursday morning into
the evening. Colder air will arrive for Thursday night. July
4th will open to cool conditions in the upper 40s to upper 50s
across Vermont and northern New York with pleasant afternoon
conditions. Showers will taper to the Northeast Kingdom before
trending dry over the evening. During the weekend, temperatures
will quickly climb towards the 90s again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Tuesday...We have increased probability of
precipitation across the northern tier of our forecast area this
evening as several showers and elevated instability
thunderstorms are persisting into the early overnight. The
severe weather threat is over for the evening.

Previous discussion...A cold front, mostly defined by its
moisture gradient, is shifting east at this time. It`s not the
sharpest of features, broken into many different pieces, as per
usual. Although there will be some drying, there will still be
some moisture advecting upstream about the same time as one of
those pieces. With about 750-1250 J/kg of CAPE, pulses of
convection should redevelop over the next few hours. As the last
vestiges of frontal forcing and diurnal heating wane, then
showers and storms should come to an end. Generally southwest
flow remains, leaving overnight lows on the warm side in the
upper 50s to upper 60s. There`s probably too much flow across
northern New York for any fog, but sections of eastern Vermont
should still be prone to radiation fog across the river valleys.

On Wednesday, temperatures through the atmospheric column will be
cooler, but with dry air and more sunshine, surface heating should
be moderately efficient. So temperatures could wind up being about
the same as today, ranging across the 80s. High pressure will keep
conditions dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 136 PM EDT Tuesday...A strong upper low approaches out of the
northwest with shower chances increasing towards daybreak. Waking up
Thursday, temperatures will remain on the warm side of normal with
mid 50s to mid 60s. Mid to late on Thursday morning, increasing
vorticity, a modest jet streak, and cool temperatures aloft, will
overcome limited moisture to produce modest instability, despite
temperatures ranging only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Additionally,
shower and thunderstorm development appears more closely aligned
with the wind shift. The main thing that could keep activity at bay
is that wind shear aloft will not be collocated with the best
instability. With about 25-30 knots of shear, this is only
marginally conducive to organization. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk outlook (Level 1 of 5), and this appears reasonable.
Wind and hail would be the most likely potential hazards. This
frontal boundary will have some actual cool conditions behind it
with overnight lows trending towards the upper 40s to upper 50s as
rain pulls away.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 136 PM EDT Tuesday...A few showers will be possible for the
Fourth of July, mainly in the Northeast Kingdom as the upper low
swings by just to our northeast. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be
ruled out, but a mid-level warm layer will keep any coverage to
isolated at most. The day could start off on the cool side, but
expect most spots to top out in the 70s under partly sunny skies.

The main story for the remainder of the holiday weekend will be a
warming trend as ridging noses into the Northeast. Saturday will be
dry with seasonable highs in the 80s. After a muggy night Saturday
night, Sunday`s highs will reach well into upper 80s to low 90s. A
cold front will start to push south toward the international border
late in the day; the bulk of any shower/thunderstorm activity with
this feature should hold off until Sunday night or even Monday, but
have stayed with 20-30% chances for precipitation in northern areas
Sunday afternoon due to uncertainty in exact timing of the front.
Faster southward movement could also impact Sunday afternoon`s highs
due to increased cloud cover. The front should move across our
region on Monday, though there are some signs that it may hang up
along or just north of the border until Monday night or even
Tuesday. Assuming the front does finally through on Monday, northern
areas should be a little cooler while central/southern VT will once
again approach 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through this evening. There is a chance that MSS gets a shower with
thunder before 01Z but currently thinking it will stay just to the
north. Patchy fog development is expected across the region later
tonight, with the most widespread fog expected in the valleys
of eastern Vermont. Thinking fog is likley at MPV, while it is
possible at EFK and SLK. However, it cannot be completely ruled
out at the rest of the terminals. The fog will lift quickly
after sunrise and VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the
rest of the day. Winds should generally become light and
terrain driven tonight before they increase during the day
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Storm
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski