925
FXUS64 KBRO 061733 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical system Beryl will be the dominant weather feature during
this portion of the total forecast. Currently a tropical storm
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, Beryl is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane and march towards the Lower Texas
Coast by sunset Sunday. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect
for the island and coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and
Kenedy counties, with a Storm Surge Watch also in effect for the
shoreline of this same area. In the event that the Hurricane Watch
and Storm Surge Watch are cancelled before sunset Sunday, a
Coastal Flood Warning, High Surf Warning, Wind Advisory, and High
Risk of rip currents would likely be needed due to the anticipated
effects of Beryl.

Temperature-wise, above normal values will occur through the period.
Heat indices currently do not support the expectation of a HEAT
ADVISORY for today or Sunday. However, if the track of Beryl is
ultimately forecast to be farther east, hotter daytime highs may
occur, and thus a HEAT ADVISORY may be needed, primarily on Sunday.

Finally, dry weather today and early tonight will become wetter late
tonight and especially on Sunday, with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow and generally along and east of the
Interstate 69C corridor. The greatest chance for precipitation is
forecast for the immediate three coastal counties and the barrier
island, with a risk for lower precipitation chances all around if
the track for Beryl is shifted farther east. A Flood Watch may need
to be considered, but Abnormally Dry conditions within large swaths
of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, per the latest drought
map, may preclude that product.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The main concern in the long term will be the impacts across Deep
South Texas, especially along the Lower Texas Coast, associated with
the approach and passage of tropical system Beryl. Beryl is expected
to strengthen as the system transverses across the western Gulf of
Mexico as favorable conditions develops, including very warm waters
and weak to no shear. The latest track guidance remains clustered
northeast of our CWA, towards the Middle Texas Coast.

This system will remain fairly tightly compacted, which should limit
both wind and rainfall impacts across Deep South Texas away from the
center of the system. The further east Beryl goes, the less rainfall
will likely fall from west to east and into the reservoirs. WPC has
highlighted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the coast with
a Marginal Risk across the central portion of the CWA Sunday night.
Based on the latest forecast track, WPC has updated the Excessive
Rainfall to place Kenedy County in a Marginal Risk Monday and Monday
night. The current 3-day QPF through Monday afternoon, keeps the
heaviest rainfall along and east of I-69E, with rainfall amounts
between 1 to 3 inches, some locally higher along the coast. If Beryl
does track further east, subsidence will likely lead to much drier
and warmer conditions Monday into late-week.

Along the coast, expect life-threatening rip currents, high surf,
storm surge of around 2 to possible 4 feet, and elevated seas
offshore. As with any tropical system, the convective bands could
contain torrential rainfall in a very short time, damaging winds,
and isolated tornadoes. Also, waterspouts are possible and stronger
winds are expected along the coast and offshore.

NHC has noted that Beryl may intensify, likely ramping up in the
final 12 hours before landfall, late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Because of this, it is imperative that preparedness
actions are completed by Sunday evening. Earliest time of arrival
for tropical storm force winds is Sunday morning, with most likely
time of arrival being Sunday evening. Please do not wait to
prepare your home, clear your yard, or evacuate, if you feel you
need to or are asked to do so.

The NBM maintains a weak onshore flow through the remainder of the
week, with abundant tropical moisture along the coast. This would be
a good setup for scattered daily sea breeze convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions at the TAF sites now. Few to scattered low clouds
for mainly eastern sections and light southeast winds. A weak sea
breeze is underway near the coast. A Beryl rain band is offshore.
High clouds will increase with deeper tropical moisture this
afternoon through tonight. VFR ceilings will develop this evening
and tonight along with increased rain chances. Though rain
chances will increase tonight, and prob groups show up in the
TAFs, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Sunday, focused more heavily on Brownsville and Harlingen rather
than McAllen. Breezy and gusty north to northeast winds will
prevail on Sunday as Beryl moves north over the West Gulf. The
track of Beryl is currently running roughly offshore parallel to
the coast, minimizing the worst impacts, but any rainbands moving
across will amplify the wind, rain, and lightning threat, with
MVFR ceilings in local convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today through Sunday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds
around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas of 2 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Tropical Storm
Beryl is forecast to gradually strengthen into a hurricane and
track northwest towards the Lower Texas Coast during the period.
Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate, even becoming
dangerous by sunset Sunday. A Hurricane Watch is currently in
effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60
nautical miles until further notice. In the event that the
Hurricane Watch is cancelled, a combination of Small Craft
Advisory and/or Gale Warning may be needed along the Lower Texas
Coast due to the anticipated dangerous winds and seas produced by
Beryl.

Sunday night through Friday...Ongoing dangerous marine conditions
will continue along the Lower Texas Coast through early next week
due to the approach and passage of tropical system Beryl. All
interests along the Lower Texas Coast should monitor the progress
of this system. Winds and seas will improve as the week progresses
as Beryl moves away and the swell and churned seas subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  79  90  81 /  10  30  70  50
HARLINGEN               96  75  92  77 /  10  10  60  50
MCALLEN                 98  78  95  80 /  10   0  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  76  98  79 /   0   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  87  81 /  10  40  80  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  78  90  78 /  10  30  70  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...54-BHM