996
FXUS64 KBRO 111715 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A slightly more active weather pattern attempts to get going
during this portion of the total forecast. 500 mb high pressure,
centered over southern New Mexico and northern Texas, will
generally remain the dominant feature for the BRO CWFA. However,
weak inverted mid-level troughiness will become established and
briefly linger along the northeast coast of Mexico. Combined with
daytime heating and precipitable water values that will near 2
inches, the result will be mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance of convection on Monday
and along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor.

Temperature-wise, above normal values are anticipated. A survey of
calculated heat index values indicates that a HEAT ADVISORY will not
be needed today or tomorrow. However, will cover the elevated heat
indices with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today, with another quite
possibly needing to be issued on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The persistent mid-level ridge over Texas will remain in control
through much of the period. An inverted 500mb trough is expected to
continue to move westward around the southern periphery of the ridge
Monday night into Tuesday. Ample moisture (PWATs around 2 inches)
combined with daytime heating may lead to a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the area, mainly near the coast, Tuesday.
Otherwise, hot and humid days and warm nights with rain-free
conditions are expected through the period.

Temperatures remain near normal with triple digit heat across the
mid to upper valley and ranchlands and muggy mornings into the upper
70s and low 80s. As moisture increases, expect Heat Indices to once
again reach near Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon. Patchy fog
will also be possible each morning where winds diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period with light northeasterly winds turning more
southeasterly and a chance of thunderstorms increasing late Monday
morning, mainly near BRO.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

(Today through Monday): Buoy 42020 reported east winds
around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas slightly under
1.5 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 2:50 CDT/7:50 UTC. A weak
pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of Mexico
throughout the period, producing light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be
needed.

Monday night through Saturday...High pressure across the Gulf
will continue to support favorable marine conditions with
generally weak to moderate onshore flow and low seas. The chance
of streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms continues, mainly
during late night or early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  95  81  95 /  10  40  10  20
HARLINGEN               76  95  78  96 /   0  30   0  20
MCALLEN                 80 100  81 100 /   0  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  99  79 100 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  83  90 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  93  79  93 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56-Hallman