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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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530 FXUS64 KBRO 061912 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A mid-level trough settles in across the central CONUS, giving Beryl an open avenue to work northward along the western Gulf of Mexico into Texas and then north to northeast toward the Ohio River Valley. By tonight, Beryl may be approaching hurricane strength again as it works towards the lower Texas coastal waters. On Sunday, the system is expected to move north across the offshore Gulf of Mexico waters as a hurricane from mid to late morning through Sunday night, bringing the bulk of the local impacts to mainly the coast, including convective bands of heavy rainfall, some coastal run-up or storm surge, life-threatening rip currents, high surf, low visibility, isolated waterspouts or tornadoes. Overall, the impact footprint across Deep South Texas is shrinking and for most in the Rio Grande Valley and brush country, it may be a relatively normal-ish cloudy summer Sunday and Sunday night with a breeze. Hurricane Watches, Tropical Storm Warnings, and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect. At the beach, expect surf conditions to become increasingly more dangerous into this evening and through the remainder of the short term, with life-threatening rip currents. A Rip Current Statement is in effect through Monday afternoon. Narrow beaches may start to become impassable tonight due to arriving swell as Beryl churns up just off our Gulf coast. We will continue to monitor the progress of Beryl as it intensifies in the Western Gulf of Mexico this evening through Sunday night. Make sure you are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several days. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Beryl is now expected to generally be north of Deep South Texas by Monday morning, making landfall near daybreak Monday along the Coastal Bend as a hurricane. The intensity forecast may see an update or two before landfall, with NHC currently sitting with a Category 1 hurricane. All coastal impacts will continue, especially rip current risk, but generally improve into Tuesday along the lower Texas coast. NBM maintains a weak onshore flow through the remainder of the forecast period locally, with abundant tropical moisture waning into Thursday. This would be a good setup for scattered daily sea breeze convection Tuesday into Thursday, becoming more isolated each day. Depending on subsidence to the west side of the tropical system, the chance of rain may quickly diminish in model guidance following Beryl. The best chance of rain would remain offshore with any streamer showers. Temperatures would likely be above normal across the brush country and most of the Rio Grande Valley Monday into Tuesday, with near normal temperatures Wednesday, gradually warming each day through Saturday. Heat Indices could spike to near Heat Advisory criteria for the mid to upper RGV Monday and mid to lower RGV and coastal counties on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions at the TAF sites now. Few to scattered low clouds for mainly eastern sections and light southeast winds. A weak sea breeze is underway near the coast. A Beryl rain band is offshore. High clouds will increase with deeper tropical moisture this afternoon through tonight. VFR ceilings will develop this evening and tonight along with increased rain chances. Though rain chances will increase tonight, and prob groups show up in the TAFs, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday, focused more heavily on Brownsville and Harlingen rather than McAllen. Breezy and gusty north to northeast winds will prevail on Sunday as Beryl moves north over the West Gulf. The track of Beryl is currently running roughly offshore parallel to the coast, minimizing the worst impacts, but any rainbands moving across will amplify the wind, rain, and lightning threat, with MVFR ceilings in local convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Today through next Saturday...Generally favorable marine conditions today will quickly deteriorate and give way to life- threatening conditions as Beryl approaches and intensifies across the coastal waters or just beyond. Elevated swells are beginning to work across the Gulf and are expected to increase through Sunday as Beryl runs north across our offshore waters. Beryl is expected strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane and may intensify further into Monday, potentially making landfall near daybreak Monday morning along the Coastal Bend. The National Hurricane Center noted the storm may intensify more in the final 12 hours before landfall. As with any tropical system, the convective bands could contain torrential rainfall, damaging winds, elevated seas, little to no visibility, and waterspouts. By Tuesday, most conditions will begin to gradually improve into late week with light onshore flow and streamer showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 90 81 93 / 30 70 50 50 HARLINGEN 75 92 77 96 / 10 60 50 50 MCALLEN 78 95 80 100 / 0 30 30 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 98 79 101 / 0 10 20 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 40 80 70 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 90 78 92 / 30 70 60 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...54-BHM