430
FXUS64 KBRO 051131 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
631 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

- Hot and Dry with elevated Heat Indices Today
- Low Rip Current Risk today; Moderate Risk Saturday

500mb ridge over NE Texas is at its peak intensity today before
splitting with one center shifting east as a strong upper trough
moves over the Plains. This splitting or weakness in the ridge will
open the door for Hurricane Beryl to turn northwest once it enters
the Gulf of Mexico late today or tonight. In the meantime, mostly
sunny and continued hot today with heat indices nearing 110 degrees
in several locations. A Special Weather Statement will be issued to
emphasize the heat risk which will be in the moderate to major risk
for heat related impacts.  Thermal trough over NE Mexico will
provide another breezy few hours this afternoon as the local
pressure gradient peaks providing wind gusts 25-30 mph.

Tonight the region will see fair, warm and sultry conditions with
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday looks not as hot as
Friday as the mid-level ridge weakens and shifts eastward.
Temperatures trends are just a few degrees lower with peak heat
indices at 108 degrees. As for rainfall, models show a weak sea
breeze with pops only at 15-20 percent along and east of I-69E.
Confidence is low and with the region on western of the outer
circulation of Beryl subsidence may win out keeping inland areas dry
with any shower activity remaining over the Gulf waters.

Beach forecast remains nice today with low surf and light to
moderate winds. Rip current risk is low today, and looks to increase
to moderate Saturday as models are suggesting an increase in swell
period over 10 seconds.

We will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl as it
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Make sure you are relying
on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the National
Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations,
local/county officials, etc, over the next several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Beryl remains a formidable hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan
Peninsula near Cozumel/Tulum. Beryl is expected to emerge into the
Gulf of Mexico sometime tonight and continue to move northwestward
over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Hurricane watches are likely to
be issued sometime later this morning.

Moving into Sunday, the rain chances will start to increase as Beryl
moves closer the Lower Texas Coast. Current expected landfall could
be anywhere between Northeastern Mexican coast and the Mid Texas
Coast. While the current intensity estimation has Beryl at landfall
as a category 1 hurricane. There is still some possibility of error
with the models as the track has been slightly shifting more
northward and the models have struggled to capture its intensity as
well. Beryl is expected to bring plenty of rainfall to the region
around 4 to 6 inches with isolated 6 to 8 inches possible. A
reasonable worst case could even be up to 10 inches. Higher amounts
are more likely along the coast. Depending on the timing of the
expected northward turn, there could be a sharp gradient in the
rainfall amounts. This has resulted in WPC placing Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley in a slight risk of Excessive Rainfall.

Rainfall is not the only hazard that will be associated with Beryl.
High risk of Rip Current, storm surge, damaging to destructive
coastal wave action including coasting flooding, high surf, and
tropical storm force winds. Beryl could bring some weak short lived
tornadoes to the area as well. SPC has most of the area in a
marginal risk currently.

Once onshore, Beryl will weaken quickly and move further inland. By
late Tuesday into Wednesday the remnants of Beryl should be out of
the area and the hazards will diminish. However there will still be
active weather through Thursday that could see some additional
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

MVFR ceilings near KMFE should be breaking up between 13-14z with
VFR prevailing for all areas the remainder of the day. Morning
Light southeast winds increase to moderate speeds with gusts of
20-25 knots for the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today through Saturday...Another 24-36 hours of favorable conditons
before steady deterioration over the Gulf waters beyond Saturday.
Hurricane Beryl passes over the northern Yucatan Peninsula today and
emerges over the Gulf Saturday morning. Light southeast winds today
and tonight turn east to northeast Saturday with only a slight
increase in winds. Seas remain rather low today and most of
Saturday. As Beryl moves into South Central Gulf of Mexico Saturday
afternoon seas and long period (10+ second)swells are likely to
approach the outer water by sunset Saturday. Not expecting any
significant shower activity today and not much tonight. Saturday
there maybe showers increasing late in the afternoon.

Saturday Night through Thursday...Moderate to strong southeasterly
flow for the later part of the weekend with seas building to high as
Beryl approaches the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Advisory will
needed at this time. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will become
more likely with time as Beryl continues to approach the Lower
Texas Coast. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate by
Saturday night and become hazardous by Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  79  94  80 /   0   0  20  30
HARLINGEN               97  75  95  77 /   0   0  20  20
MCALLEN                100  78  98  79 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  76  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  83  88  81 /   0   0  20  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  79  92  79 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...59-GB