749
FXUS64 KBRO 042320 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A warm Independence Day continues across Deep South Texas with
breezy southeasterly winds. Heat Indices this afternoon may reach
110 degrees in a few locations, but remain below Heat Advisory
criteria. Overall, a rather quiet short term for the beginning of
the holiday weekend, as the mid-level ridge holds across the
Southeast and high pressure builds at the surface. Expect
seasonal to just slightly above normal temperatures, with near
zero POPs through Friday night.

Perfect weather to continue or finish up any hurricane
preparations at home, clearing yards and patios of anything that
can be thrown around, and clearing ditches or drain grates of
anything that could impede drainage into next week.

We will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl as it
moves towards the Yucatan Peninsula into tomorrow. Make sure you
are relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such
as the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media
stations, local/county officials, etc, over the next several
days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key message:

- Beryl barreling slowly toward deep South Texas and the RGV
- Uncertainty continues about Beryl`s track and strength Sunday
  and Monday
- Deteriorating marine and coastal conditions from Saturday on
- Flooding rain possible for all of deep South Texas Sunday and
  Monday

NHC summary: At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane
Beryl was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 83.4 West.
Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h).
A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or two, taking the core of Beryl away from the Cayman
Islands this afternoon and then over the Yucatan Peninsula early
Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico Friday night and move northwestward across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Saturday weather will reflect summertime conditions for deep
South Texas and the RGV. Although there may be a few tropical
showers or thunderstorms over the Gulf, daytime weather conditions
will be partly cloudy with light east winds and high temperatures
in the 90s to near 100 with peak afternoon heat index values from
103 to 108 degrees. As Beryl nears the lower Texas coast on its
current forecast track, cloudiness and rain chances will increase
for Saturday night, especially for coastal areas.

Rain chances will ramp up in earnest Sunday and Monday. Beryl is
forecast to make landfall along the Northeast Mexican coast early
Monday morning as a marginal category one hurricane. There is
still some uncertainty with the landfall point, however. and it
could shift north or south in future forecasts. Rain bands will
spread over deep South Texas and the RGV leading up to landfall.
WPC excessive rainfall forecasts depict the CWA in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall (that which would exceed flash flood
guidance). A slight risk is a 15 to 39% chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance within 25 miles of any given forecast point.
Cumulative rainfall estimates from Saturday through Wednesday are
currently in the 4 to 6 inch range with isolated 6 to 8 inch
amounts possible. These amounts have been trending higher. Once
Beryl gets into the open Gulf, more focus will shine on overall
rainfall amounts.

Other hazards ramping up Saturday night into Sunday include a
high risk of rip currents, storm surge, damaging to destructive
coastal wave action including coastal flooding and high surf and
tropical storm force winds. As Beryl moves inland on Monday, if
she remains on the current track, deep South Texas and the RGV
would be on the north side of the storm, looking at an increased
risk of tornadoes.

Once Beryl makes landfall and moves inland, she will quickly
weaken, with the chance of the remnant storm moving along the Rio
Grande and gifting the area and reservoirs with additional water.
The weather elements provided by various models have differed to
some extent and it has been challenging to integrate everything.
Used the NBM generally with some areas of modification intended
to improve the updated forecast. Beryl should be out of the
picture, with the last traces somewhere over the interior of
Texas by Tuesday or Wednesday and most hazards should diminish,
but unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for the duration, through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period at all TAF sites
with only a few clouds and breezy southeasterly winds this evening
diminishing to light southeasterly winds after sunset. Breezy
conditions return by tomorrow afternoon along with a few high
clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Now through Friday Night...Marine conditions to kick off the
holiday weekend remain generally favorable with light to moderate
southeasterly winds and low seas.

Saturday through Tuesday night...Onshore winds will range from
moderate to strong, tending more toward strong for late weekend
to the end of the forecast, with seas building to high as Beryl
makes its way across the Southwest and West Gulf of Mexico. This
will result in at least small craft advisory conditions. However,
tropical storm watches will be possible based on the latest NHC
forecast. Marine conditions will deteriorate Saturday night and
become hazardous by Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  95  79  95 /   0   0   0  20
HARLINGEN               77  98  75  95 /   0   0   0  20
MCALLEN                 80  99  78  98 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78 100  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  88  83  88 /   0   0   0  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  93  79  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...65-Irish