![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
631 FXUS61 KBOX 061913 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 313 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and very humid weather continues, with greater risk for showers and thunderstorms across southeast New England tonight. Mainly dry Sunday afternoon through Monday. Summertime heat and humidity should prevail next week as well, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Continuing to monitor thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showed most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2,000 J/kg across much of southern New England with effective shear values of 40-60 kts. Mid level lapse rates have not improved, and will provide the brakes for this scenario. Entrenched stratus towards southeastern New England should also cause any thunderstorms to weaken as they move east. No epiphanies for timing and coverage of showers overnight after reviewing the latest guidance suite. Still a low confidence forecast overall. Have the greatest confidence in showers and thunderstorms along and west of the CT River in MA and CT. Very humid conditions continue, keeping low temperatures above normal. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A front slowly sags into southern New England late tonight into Sunday. Not much push behind this front, so thinking this front is still lingering nearby into Sunday night, most likely toward the coast. Very humid conditions and above normal temperatures continue. That said, a subtle intrusion of drier air in the mid levels aloft should provide more of a cap on showers and thunderstorms during this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: * Summertime heat and humidity most of next week - potential Heat Advisory for some Mon/Tue * Scattered showers/storms mainly Wed-Fri Ensembles are in good agreement next week and feature persistent subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and upper trough near Great Lakes. This pattern favors typical summertime heat and humidity as SW flow aloft transports very warm and humid air up the East Coast. Core of heat and humidity looks to be Mon/Tue. We could reach Heat Advisory criteria (heat index 95-99F for 2 or more hours on consecutive days) away from coast and especially in the Connecticut and Merrimack Valleys as well as interior eastern MA. For rest of next week, presence of more cloud cover should keep highs in 80s, but overnight lows will probably stay in 70s, especially in urban areas. As we`ve seen over the past week, there probably won`t be a lot of larger scale forcing present to result in organized showers or thunderstorms. Rather, we should see weaker short waves from Great Lakes dampen out as they run into upper ridge offshore. Timing of these short waves is always a problem in the model world, especially at longer time ranges, but it does appear our better chances of showers/storms will be in the Wed-Sat timeframe (afternoon and evening) as we also have weak surface fronts nearby. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: Moderate confidence overall, low on timing of SHRA/TS. Sub-VFR likely thru midnight for most airports, as weak frontal boundary sags SE toward the coastal waters. SHRA/TS likely to be ongoing somewhere in the airspace, with trend being for a gradual SE shift towards the south coast. Should see gradual improvement in flight categories from NW to SE, but sub-VFR likely to continue into early Sun morning for the south coast. Winds continue SW around 5-10 kt, though will turn WSW late. Sunday: High confidence. Improvement to VFR expected for most, but can`t rule out periodic SHRA and sub-VFR at ACK during the morning as frontal boundary stalls. WSW winds 5-10 kt. Sunday Night...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Areas MVFR possible towards ACK, closer to a stalled front. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence overall, low confidence on SHRA/TS timing and coverage. Greater risk during and after the evening push as boundary sags southward. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence overall, low confidence on SHRA/TS timing. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday Night: S to SW flow continues as a front slowly approaches the waters tonight, then likely stalls across the waters Sunday into Sunday night. A few gusts up to 25 kt, along with marginal 5-foot seas across the southern coastal waters, so continued the Small Craft Advisories into Sunday. Areas of fog may reduce visibility below 1 mile late tonight. Visibility expected to improve Sunday. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/JWD NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...Belk/JWD MARINE...Belk/JWD