Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
007 FXUS65 KBOU 060626 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1226 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures on Saturday before a dip on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures and scattered storms are possible early Sunday morning until late afternoon across the region. - Lower precipitation chances for the plains next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 713 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Water-vapor imagery shows lingering dry conditions across the forecast area this evening. Current observations show temperatures have begun their cool down and skies are expected to clear even further this evening. The current forecast remains in good standing, therefore no adjustments were needed aside from adding some current obs for this update. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 I don`t know about you but wow this weather has been amazing the past few days. Low-80s for highs and just a few showers around, what a fantastic stretch! Flat cumulus across the region bodes well for decreasing rain chances today and satellite is showing drier air punching in from the north, along with some warming in the mid-levels. Temperatures overnight will cool towards July averages owing to mostly clear skies and the dry air in place. On Saturday we do warm up nicely back towards the 90F mark with slightly thicker mid-level heights and continued NW flow. Some late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the far northeast plains but with limited moisture during the day it looks spotty at best && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/... Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An upper level trough will continue to bring northwest flow to the forecast area through Monday. Cross sections indicate lingering low level moisture mainly east of the I-25 corridor just before the cold front approaches. CAMs favor scattered thunderstorms developing early Sunday morning into early afternoon mainly for the northeast corner. Given the upper level support as the trough axis slowly pushes east and MU CAPE values between 200-400 J/kg, any thunderstorm should remain sub-severe producing small hail and brief heavy rainfall. As the trough axis deepens by Sunday afternoon, another round of scattered storms are likely for the high country and urban corridor. PWATs remain between 0.50-0.70 inches and faster storm motion should keep a low threat of flooding for the burn areas. It is possible the environment may become too stable after the cold front pushes through and with limited heating, not expecting any threat of severe weather. Expect much cooler temperatures Sunday afternoon with the urban corridor and plains drop between 72-79F. Additionally, the mountains and valleys should drop near 60-74F. Not many changes for next week`s forecast. Winds aloft decrease significantly and mid-level relative humidity values show drier air entering our CWA. Monday through Thursday in the long term period will have isolated showers and storms with light rainfall mainly for areas west of the Divide. Surface standardized temperature anomalies display 2-3 degrees above normal starting Thursday and Friday afternoon which could indicate the return of mid 90s for the lower elevations. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1155 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 There will be drainage winds and clear skies through the rest of the night. Winds will shift to the northwest during the morning hours tomorrow and could briefly gust up to 20 knots. By the afternoon, wind direction will be hard to forecast but a northerly component is expected. An outflow boundary from storms to the east may move through the terminals in the evening with gusts up to 25 knots out of the east. On Saturday night, there will be a shortwave trough that moves through the area. It may initially bring light showers with minimal impacts before midnight. After around 10Z, there could be thunderstorms that develop which could lower ceilings to around 3 kft and reduce visibility. Sunday morning will likely have stratus that impacts the terminals. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Bonner SHORT TERM...Heavener LONG TERM...AD AVIATION...Danielson