767
FXUS65 KBOI 031552
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
952 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...Wednesday through Thursday temps will still be
just below normal to about normal with clear skies. This
afternoon we`re expecting windy conditions in much of the Snake
Plain and southern Idaho. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected in the
Magic Valley and Camas Prairie with 20-30 mph elsewhere. Gusty
winds combine with very dry air to result in critical fire
weather conditions across portions of southern Idaho,
particularly in the lower elevations where fuels are driest.
Otherwise sunny skies and warm temperatures.

Still closely tracking the development of a strong upper ridge
building over the western CONUS. This will bring a prolonged
period of very hot temperatures, very dry air, and clear skies.
Expect an Excessive Heat Watch to come out with the afternoon
package, as not only are the afternoon highs significant, but
the heat continues for the foreseeable future. Many records are
being threatened by our current forecasted highs, and the areas
of Major HeatRisk are extensive by early next week. Again, more
details to come with the Watch for the afternoon package.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. High density altitude will become a factor by the
weekend into much of next week. Surface winds: N-NW 5-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt. West winds gusting to 25-35 kt after 03/15Z at
KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-11 kt becoming NW
11-13 kt with gusts to 25 kt possible after 03/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Dry northwest flow
will prevail through the end of the week. A shortwave trough
will pass by to our north today. The main impact of this system
for our area will be gusty winds across southern Idaho as the
surface pressure gradient increases with the passage of the
trough. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected in the Magic Valley and
Camas Prairie this afternoon, with 20-30 mph elsewhere. Gusty
winds will combine with very dry air to result in critical fire
weather conditions across portions of southern Idaho,
particularly in the lower elevations where fuels are dry.
Otherwise, expect sunny skies and temperatures similar to
yesterday, or a couple degrees below normal.

A strong upper level ridge along the coast will slowly build
inland through Friday. This will bring a continuation of sunny
skies and breezy winds for the 4th of July and Friday, although
winds will not be as strong as today. Highs will warm several
degrees each day, with lower valley highs around 90 on Thursday
and the mid to upper 90s on Friday. Dry air and clear skies will
allow for cool overnight temperatures.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Confidence remains
high that a long-duration heat wave will commence this weekend
and persist into next week. An intense high pressure ridge near
the west coast gradually moves eastward as the axis reaches our
area by the middle of next week for continued dry conditions.
High temperatures will likely (> 60 percent chance) exceed 100
degrees in the lower valleys starting on Saturday with
temperatures warming a degree or two each day, peaking on next
Tuesday or Wednesday as highs likely exceed 105 degrees in some
areas, including the Treasure Valley. Some locations may reach
or exceed record highs. Fortunately, the air mass will be dry
allowing for overnight lows to dip into the 60s providing
temporary relief through the early morning hours.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ424-426.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....JR
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....BW