280
FXUS65 KBOI 030914
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
314 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...The short range
period will be active, with periods of showers and thunderstorms
today and Friday, and the chance for heavy rain late Thu night
into Friday. Early this morning, a few showers were moving
northeast across the area, but all thunderstorm activity had
ended as of 3:00 AM MDT. The remainder of the morning is
expected to be fairly quite, but thunderstorms will increase
near the NV this afternoon. Storms will move NE into the
evening, especially over eastern Oregon. This lines up well with
the Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon and evening, and
no change has been made to that this morning. A significant
shortwave trough will move toward the area tonight, and pass
over in two parts. The first will move over the area early
Friday, while the second passes over Friday night. The first
wave has the potential to keep thunderstorms going all Thursday
night and into Friday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of
the wave, and there is good model agreement that storm coverage
will increase, and that some may contain heavy rain. Debris
flows, especially on/near burn scars, are possible in sloped
terrain, and a flood watch may be necessary if later guidance
continues to show this potential. For today`s storms, wind gusts
45 to 55 mph are possible. Tonight, wind gust potential will
fall slightly to 40-50 mph, still unusually high for nocturnal
convection. By Friday afternoon, peak gust potential rises back
up to 45-55 mph. By Saturday, with the final shortwave trough
moving off to the east, the remaining slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms will be over the West Central Mountain zone.
Saturday night should be dry.

Temperatures will drop to around 5 degrees above normal today,
then fall to a few degrees below normal Friday and Saturday.
Highs in lower elevations in the 80s will feel refreshing after
the heat we have experienced recently. Winds, apart from those
produced by showers and thunderstorms, should be generally out
of the NW during the afternoons averaging 5-15 mph.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper-level trough
will stall out over the coast of California as a strong upper-
level ridge will build in over the Desert Southwest and Great
Basin. This will put SE Oregon and SW Idaho in a drying and
warming trend under southwesterly flow aloft. Models remain in
good agreement in the development of the ridge, thus forecast
confidence is high in a heat wave beginning Monday through
Thursday. Temperatures are still expected to be about 10 degrees
above normal, with lower elevations hovering just above 100
degrees for their afternoon highs. Exact high temperature values
may shift by a few degrees leading up to the event. However,
there is enough agreement in high temps that due to the multi-
day nature of the event, some sort of heat product will likely
be issued.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Isolated showers persist this morning.
But numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected beginning this
afternoon. Storms could produce 45 kt gusts, small hail, and
heavy rain. Storms will develop along the ID/NV and OR/NV
borders and progress northeastward through the area in the
evening, lasting even until Friday morning. Blowing dust and
precipitation could cause local MVFR/IFR conditions. Surface
winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, some variability due to lingering weak
storm outflows. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: WSW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Showers/thunderstorms returning this evening into
Fri, with erratic outflow winds 30-45 kt, lightning, reduced
visibility in rain and blowing dust. Surface winds outside of
storms: NW-W 5-15 kt.

Weekend Outlook...Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
across the area Friday morning become focused over high terrain
in SW and central Idaho Friday afternoon. Gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy rain are possible in storms. VFR Saturday and
Sunday with clearing skies. Surface winds NW 5-15 kt each
morning and afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening ORZ670-672.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM