224
FXUS64 KBMX 030816
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
316 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

Through the 4th of July, the heat and humidity will have to be dealt
with as we approach dangerous heat levels for a large portion of
Central Alabama. While temperatures are cooler than last week`s
furnace blast, the dewpoints are higher so the apparent temperature,
or feels like temperature, will be just as hot. There could be some
showers/storms around, but just a brief reprieve from the heat. Most
of the showers and storms that develop on the 4th should dissipate
by sunset. Look for highs to be in the low to mid 90s both
afternoons, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. As for the
Heat Advisory, expanding a few counties in the southeast for today
and then expanded in the northeast on Thursday. We do have 4
counties that are not in the advisory for today or Wednesday in the
east. This counties typically have a little bit of a cooler tendency
and also represents the higher elevation zones in our forecast
area.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

Key messages:

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected Friday. A
  couple strong storms with gusty winds are possible. There is
  uncertainty as to whether heat indices will reach 105 degrees
  depending on how quickly storms develop.

- Some drier air may push into northern portions of Central
  Alabama over the weekend. Otherwise, a wetter pattern is
  expected next week with heat indices decreasing to just below
  105 degrees.

Subtropical ridging will weaken and become centered near the
Southeast Atlantic Coast through much of the period, while
troughing amplifies over the Central CONUS downstream of a strong
ridge over California. A seasonally strong shortwave will be
moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday night and
Friday along with an associated surface low. An associated cold
front will reach the Mid-South by Friday morning. Any lingering
showers and storms at sunset Thursday night should quickly
diminish, but it seems prudent to mention slight chance PoPs
during the evening outdoor activities. Convection will remain
ongoing ahead of the front late Thursday night with a slight
chance that any convection makes it into our northern counties
during the overnight hours. The front will be approaching from the
northwest Friday while a pre-frontal trough may develop further
south over Central Alabama. Westerlies along the base of the
trough will begin to extend down into North Alabama. Forcing from
these features and any boundaries from Thursday night`s convection
along with PWATs above 2 inches will result in numerous to
widespread showers and storms developing by Friday afternoon. Some
guidance suggests an MCS could develop as early as Friday morning
but this remains uncertain. 0-6km bulk shear around 15 to 20 kts
and any expanding cold pools could result in some strong storms
with gusty winds though a lack of dry air aloft and weak mid-level
lapse rates will be a limiting factor for getting anything much
stronger. Uncertainty regarding timing of convection results in an
uncertain heat index forecast, but if storms hold off long enough
then heat indices would reach 105 in the persistent humid air
mass.

Latest guidance has trended a bit more aggressive with the
southward progress of the front before it stalls, indicating some
drier (but still warm) air may make it down into some of the
northern half of Central Alabama over the weekend. Meanwhile, a
moist airmass will result in continued scattered to numerous
showers and storms across at least the southern half of the area
along and south of the front, along with potential for heat
indices near 105 in the southeast counties. The front will lift
back to the north on Monday. A weakness in the ridge over the
south-central CONUS and a moist air mass will result in scattered
to numerous showers and storms with heat indices mainly staying
just under 105. The most likely scenario for Hurricane Beryl per
the latest NHC forecasts and ensembles is for it to dissipate over
southern Texas or northern Mexico, with less and less ensemble
members showing any remnants curving towards us. Were this low
probability scenario to occur, the sensible weather forecast for
Central Alabama probably wouldn`t be that much different, however.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

Expect redevelopment of the low clouds around sunrise. Mentioned
MVFR prevailing with a few locations tempo IFR for a few hours.
The typical thinning and lifting of the cloud bases expected by
16-17z. Moisture appears more limited with the latest CAMS so
will back off on coverage in the afternoon. While an isolated
shower/storm is possible at all sites, the best coverage will be
limited to MGM. So removed PROB30 from all but MGM. Light east to
southeast winds overnight and increasing to 5-10 kts on after
15z/16z. Winds calm after 1-3z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Scattered showers and storms are possible today mainly in far
southern portions of Central Alabama. Scattered showers and
storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the
weekend. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the
southeast to southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  72  95  75 /  10  10  40  20
Anniston    93  74  93  76 /  10  10  50  20
Birmingham  97  75  95  78 /  20  10  40  20
Tuscaloosa  95  75  95  77 /  20  10  40  20
Calera      95  75  95  77 /  20  10  40  20
Auburn      92  74  92  76 /  20  20  50  20
Montgomery  93  74  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
Troy        94  73  93  74 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
the following counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore-
Jefferson-Lee-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-
Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16