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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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038 FXUS64 KBMX 061756 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 A boundary draped over the state is allowing thunderstorms to develop, with continued development expected through the afternoon and evening. Though scattered showers could develop north of this boundary, the main focus should be the southern half of the state where instabilities will be around 3000 to 3500 J/kg. Winds will be light, so any storm won`t be encouraged to move quickly. With PW values max for this time of year, and light steering winds, localized flooding may be possible in any slow moving and training thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in any stronger thunderstorms as well. Tonight, activity should weaken and decrease in coverage through the night, with fog development possible overnight. Models are not holding on to this boundary moving any large distance through the next 24 hours, so scattered to numerous activity is possible again across the southern half of the state Sunday late morning through the late afternoon. With the northern half of the area expected to be under northwest flow (being north of the boundary), will leave the Heat Advisory valid for the southeastern counties now through Sunday evening. If the boundary does meander, the counties in the Advisory might need to be adjusted. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast on Monday. This will coincide with southerly/southwesterly low- to mid- level flow which will support moisture advection from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Tennessee Valley. As such, PWs will increase to near 2.0" or above area-wide Monday afternoon, complementing diurnal instability which should foster scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as temperatures increase to the low 90s. Ample moisture will linger in the area on Tuesday, and potentially increase further, as Beryl moves into eastern Texas. Some guidance depicts PWs rising as high as 2.5". As a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast once again for Tuesday afternoon, particularly as heights begin a slow decrease in association with Beryl devolving to an open-wave trough to our west. PoPs are ~70% for Tue. Thereafter, Beryl should transition to the northeast, moving toward the TN and OH Valleys. PoPs are on a slight decrease (still ~50%) owing to the potential for a "dry slot" depicted in guidance Wed afternoon. Nonetheless, with Beryl in the region, we`ll need to watch other supportive factors for local impacts. The overall scenario supports locally heavy rainfall in strongest showers/storms, and there`s some signal for low-topped, rotating thunderstorms in the region Tue/Wed should low- to mid-level wind fields east of Beryl`s circulation remain intact and strong enough. Just something to keep an eye on. Beryl`s remnants lift to our north thereafter, and it`s a routine summer forecast for Thu/Fri. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. KEET should be the northern most extent of the majority of the activity, with only VCSH included in TAF sites north of KEET through the afternoon. Any thunderstorm or strong shower that moves over a TAF site could produce IFR visibilities due to a high level of low level moisture. Fog development is possible overnight, and have included mention in KEET, KANB, and KTCL for now. Confidence is low in intensity of fog, so left MVFR visibilities for now to show the trend. Scattered convection is expected again on Sunday. Note: AMD NOT SKED at KASN due to missing ceilings. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... The region remains amidst a period of hot and humid weather that is forecast to continue the next several days. This will provide daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with elevated humidity levels. Winds generally remain light and variable through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 94 72 94 / 10 40 20 60 Anniston 72 91 74 92 / 20 50 30 60 Birmingham 74 94 75 94 / 20 40 20 60 Tuscaloosa 75 92 74 94 / 20 50 20 60 Calera 73 94 75 93 / 20 50 20 60 Auburn 73 90 74 90 / 30 70 40 70 Montgomery 75 92 74 93 / 40 70 30 60 Troy 74 92 73 92 / 50 80 40 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...24