102
FXUS64 KBMX 070126
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
826 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A large part of the surface based instability has been used up
early this evening. A few showers remain in the far southeast and
the far southwest. The forecast trend of decreasing coverage to
isolated by 9 pm looks good. There are plenty of mid and high
clouds over Central Alabama with the cumulus near the storms.
These clouds will slowly thin out overnight.

It appears that the quasi-stationary front was located near I-59
this evening. Surface dew points remain in the 70s south of the
front and actually dry out quite a bit north into the mid 60s.
Overnight lows should be a tad cooler north. Will monitor the
possible low cloud or patchy fog development late tonight.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A boundary draped over the state is allowing thunderstorms to
develop, with continued development expected through the afternoon
and evening. Though scattered showers could develop north of this
boundary, the main focus should be the southern half of the state
where instabilities will be around 3000 to 3500 J/kg. Winds will
be light, so any storm won`t be encouraged to move quickly. With
PW values max for this time of year, and light steering winds,
localized flooding may be possible in any slow moving and training
thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in any stronger
thunderstorms as well.

Tonight, activity should weaken and decrease in coverage
through the night, with fog development possible overnight. Models
are not holding on to this boundary moving any large distance
through the next 24 hours, so scattered to numerous activity is
possible again across the southern half of the state Sunday late
morning through the late afternoon.

With the northern half of the area expected to be under northwest
flow (being north of the boundary), will leave the Heat Advisory
valid for the southeastern counties now through Sunday evening.
If the boundary does meander, the counties in the Advisory might
need to be adjusted.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Main concern through the long term portion of the forecast will
be watching what the eventual remnants of "Beryl" do. Latest
official forecast has the remnant low moving toward the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, and the computer models are
coming into better agreement in moving the (weakening) low
northeast after that. Central Alabama will remain in a deep moist
tropical regime, characterized by high precipitable water values,
through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected early in the
week, with peak convective coverage coming in the late afternoons.
Interestingly, as mentioned in the previous long term discussion,
"Beryl`s" remnants may actually cause a bit of a dry slot across
our area on Wednesday -- which is currently depicted in the medium
range models. This could actually lead to fewer but stronger
thunderstorms in this time frame. Beyond Wednesday, forecast
uncertainly increases and the forecast returns to a largely climo-
flavored variety.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Mainly mid and upper level cloudiness early this evening over
Central Alabama. Remaining convection will diminish by 3z and not
much mentioned in the forecast due to specific locations of rain. VFR
conditions are expected much of the period outside any convection.
Did not hit the terminals with the low clouds and fog like
previous early mornings as the signal is not nearly as strong.
But we should certainly monitor these conditions overnight. More
thunderstorms on tap for Sunday initializing near a quasi-
stationary front or any other boundaries remaining over the area.
Winds will generally be light.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  94  72  94 /  10  40  20  50
Anniston    72  91  74  93 /  20  50  30  50
Birmingham  74  94  75  93 /  20  40  20  50
Tuscaloosa  75  92  75  94 /  20  50  20  50
Calera      73  94  75  93 /  30  50  20  50
Auburn      73  90  75  91 /  40  70  40  50
Montgomery  75  93  74  93 /  40  70  30  50
Troy        74  93  73  92 /  60  80  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...24