Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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465 FXUS64 KBMX 011716 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 Currently the frontal boundary is still north of the area. This is confirmed with dewpoints still the 70s across northern Alabama. We do see a northerly flow across the area, so the mean trough is already through. As we move through the day, the front will slide south. We should see the dewpoints lower across the north, but remain near the mid 70s in the south as we begin to warm up. This will result in heat indices increasing to 105 to 108 in the southeast. Went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon. We could see some isolated to scattered convection in the southeast along the edge of the trough but ahead of the front. If a storm can develop it will have the potential to be strong with gusty winds possible as well as heavy rainfall. The front stalls near the I-85 corridor and then begins to lift back to the north overnight. Rain showers will remain possible south of the front through the night. At the same time the easterly flow will increase and low clouds will begin to infiltrate in from the east and move across eastern Alabama and into central Alabama by daybreak. As we move into Tuesday, the frontal boundary will lift back to just south of the I-20 corridor, so rain chances will increase from south to north during the day. With the clouds and increase in rain there will be a temperature gradient across the state with upper 80s in the east to mid to upper 90s in the west. Will need to monitor the trends of the dewpoints, but right the majority of the west remains just below 105 for the heat index so will not issue yet for Tuesday. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 Key messages: - Hot and humid conditions continue into much of the holiday weekend with heat indices at or above 105. - Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected Wednesday and Independence Day with the potential for an uptick in shower and thunderstorms coverage Friday and Saturday. The strong subtropical ridge will remain over Central Alabama Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to push eastward towards the Atlantic Friday and Saturday in response to a deepening trough over the north-central CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection. Heat indices will be near or above 105 especially along and west of I-65. Friday into the weekend the southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough begin to dip into the area as a cold front approaches and then stalls over North Alabama. This will result in the potential for an increase in coverage of showers and storms as we begin to see a pattern change with a weakness in the ridge developing over the south-central CONUS. Pooling dew points south of the front will result in the potential for the highest heat indices occurring on Friday depending on how quickly convection initiates. The most likely scenario for the track of Hurricane Beryl per the large majority of ensemble members at this time is for it to be steered westward by the ridge to the southwestern Gulf and remain well removed from the northern Gulf Coast. Please see the latest NHC forecasts. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail areawide through this cycle. An easterly flow will develop tonight and may result in conditions close to MVFR at KANB and potentially KASN early through mid morning Tuesday, but maintained prevailing VFR conditions for this issuance. Cumulus development this afternoon will be most prevalent south with some showers and storms possible across the far southeast. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible far southeast overnight, followed by isolated showers and storms across much of the southeastern portion of the area up to the end of this forecast cycle. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... A drier air mass temporarily moves in today with RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the northern half of Central Alabama, and the 40 to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum RH values increase to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday and Wednesday. 20ft winds will be around 8 to 10 mph, from the north today and the southeast on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will be limited to far southeast Central Alabama today and the southern half of Central Alabama on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 91 70 93 / 0 10 10 20 Anniston 71 89 73 92 / 10 20 10 20 Birmingham 71 93 75 95 / 0 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 69 98 76 95 / 0 10 10 20 Calera 70 93 75 94 / 0 20 10 30 Auburn 73 88 73 90 / 20 40 20 30 Montgomery 75 95 74 93 / 0 40 20 30 Troy 74 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...05