Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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098 FXUS64 KBMX 011823 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 123 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 This afternoon. . Heat Advisory remains in effect across portions of Southeast and South-Central Alabama through 7 pm this evening. The forecast area is positioned on the eastern periphery of a sprawling mid to upper level ridge centered over far Northeast Texas. Strong and expansive surface high pressure was centered across the Northern Extent of Lake Michigan and was supporting a weak front`s southward movement across the area with drier air across the far northern portion of the area with higher humidity across the central and southern counties at this writing. Skies will range from mostly sunny north to partly cloudy over the south and central counties today. There will be a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorm activity across the far southeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon, where the lower and middle levels are sufficiently moist. Winds will become northerly areawide from 6-12 mph and potentially breezy at times through sunset as the boundary layer becomes well mixed behind the front. High temperatures will range from around 90 across the far northern tier and in the higher elevations east and central to the upper 90s across the southern third of the area. The combination of these temperatures with high humidity across the southeast and portions of our south-central counties with heat index values topping out around 110 degrees this afternoon across portions of Russell/Barbour and Pike Counties with values from 105 to 108 degrees elsewhere in the advisory area. Tonight. Mid-level ridging will become centered over Northern Louisiana overnight with a northerly flow aloft over the area. Strong and expansive surface high pressure will move east, becoming centered across the Eastern Great Lakes Region. The surface boundary will become positioned just to the south of our forecast area, roughly along the U.S. Highway 84 corridor overnight. The position of the ridging to our northeast will promote a developing easterly flow across the area, resulting in easterly winds developing overnight and increased potential for lower clouds to develop and move west into the eastern counties later tonight before sunrise on Tuesday. Skies will range from mostly clear west to mostly cloudy conditions toward sunrise east. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible across the far east and southeast counties overnight. Winds will become easterly with speeds from 4-8 mph. Lows will range from the mid 60s far northwest to the mid 70s southeast and south-central. Tuesday. The mid-level ridging will become centered over the Mid-South Region on Tuesday while strong surface high pressure becomes elongated in form across much of the Northeast Metropolitan Corridor, extending southwest down the Appalachians. A weak front will be positioned roughly along Interstate 10 across Northern Florida while a weak easterly flow trough will be positioned meridionally across the western portion of the state. Expect skies to range from partly cloudy west to mostly cloudy east on Tuesday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible generally near and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor with best chances closer to the Interstate 85 corridor across the southeast counties. Winds will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 90s west and southwest. A heat advisory may be needed for portions of the southwest counties, generally from Tuscaloosa to Selma and west where temperatures will be high enough to combine with the humidity to create heat index values from 105-107 degrees based upon this forecast update. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 Key messages: - Hot and humid conditions continue into much of the holiday weekend with heat indices at or above 105. - Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected Wednesday and Independence Day with the potential for an uptick in shower and thunderstorms coverage Friday and Saturday. The strong subtropical ridge will remain over Central Alabama Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to push eastward towards the Atlantic Friday and Saturday in response to a deepening trough over the north-central CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection. Heat indices will be near or above 105 especially along and west of I-65. Friday into the weekend the southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough begin to dip into the area as a cold front approaches and then stalls over North Alabama. This will result in the potential for an increase in coverage of showers and storms as we begin to see a pattern change with a weakness in the ridge developing over the south-central CONUS. Pooling dew points south of the front will result in the potential for the highest heat indices occurring on Friday depending on how quickly convection initiates. The most likely scenario for the track of Hurricane Beryl per the large majority of ensemble members at this time is for it to be steered westward by the ridge to the southwestern Gulf and remain well removed from the northern Gulf Coast. Please see the latest NHC forecasts. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail areawide through this cycle. An easterly flow will develop tonight and may result in conditions close to MVFR at KANB and potentially KASN early through mid morning Tuesday, but maintained prevailing VFR conditions for this issuance. Cumulus development this afternoon will be most prevalent south with some showers and storms possible across the far southeast. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible far southeast overnight, followed by isolated showers and storms across much of the southeastern portion of the area up to the end of this forecast cycle. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... A drier air mass temporarily moves in today with RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the northern half of Central Alabama, and the 40 to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum RH values increase to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday and Wednesday. 20ft winds will be around 8 to 10 mph, from the north today and the southeast on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will be limited to far southeast Central Alabama today and the southern half of Central Alabama on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 91 70 93 / 0 10 10 20 Anniston 71 89 73 92 / 10 20 10 20 Birmingham 71 93 75 95 / 0 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 69 98 76 95 / 0 10 10 20 Calera 70 93 75 94 / 0 20 10 30 Auburn 73 88 73 90 / 20 40 20 30 Montgomery 75 95 74 93 / 0 40 20 30 Troy 74 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...05