Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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413 FXUS64 KBMX 071926 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 226 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 Winds will be prevailing out of the southwest through tonight. Plenty of moisture advection will take place with PW values near max for this time of year. Instabilities will be close to 3000 J/kg and little shear is present. CAMs are trying to show scattered convection across the state through the afternoon and early evening, though so far coverage is much less than yesterday. Would expect high rainfall rates and slow moving storms, though severe weather is not expected at this time. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices hovering in the trouble digits across the state, and heat indices around 105 in the southeastern counties. Will keep a Heat Advisory going for the southeastern counties through the evening. Winds will turn low and mid level winds from the south early Monday morning through the rest of the short term. High PW values will remain and instabilities will be fairly high overnight and Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the night, with more scattered convection expected Monday afternoon. Activity should again be slow moving with high rainfall rates possible. A few storms may produce gusty winds but right now, severe weather is not expected. Temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 90s with heat indices hovering around the lower triple digits. With low temperatures tonight only be in the mid 70s with a few areas reaching the low 70s, have opted to extend the Heat Advisory and include the southwestern half of the area. Fog is possible again overnight, especially in any areas that receive rainfall this evening. Left in patchy wording for now due to uncertainty in coverage. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 Latest NHC forecast and 12Z model runs indicate no big changes to the expected evolution and movement of "Beryl" and its eventual remnants since this morning`s discussion. Long term portion of the forecast remains largely unchanged from before as well, with a small lull in daily convective rain chances the middle to end of the upcoming work week, and a return of high temperatures well into the 90s by next weekend. /61/ Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 Beryl remains on track to impact areas to our west on Tuesday after moving inland from the Texas Gulf Coast. This will coincide with a moisture-rich environment spanning the entire Deep South, though guidance has recently trended somewhat lower with PWs. Nonetheless, we should still see a good scattering of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday given height falls associated with Beryl to our west, and there will be mesoscale considerations that could result in locally higher/lesser coverage of convection. The latest NHC forecast (and associated guidance) depicts a more transient evolution of Beryl across the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday as its circulation merges with a trough to the north. It now appears to be well on its way toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday as an open wave trough aloft with post tropical cyclone characteristics. As such, impacts to Central AL appear to be little to none at this time, but we`ll monitor for any potential changes since we`re on the eastern side of the circulation where it`s not uncommon to see at least isolated flooding & tornado threats establish. Latest forecasts from SPC is currently focused on areas to our northwest & north where guidance is now placing the best supportive kinematic parameters. After Beryl moves off to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday, a drier, more stable air mass is forecast to move into much of the Tennessee Valley along with a slight reduction in temperatures - it`s a cold front. Thus, we`ll return to a more routine summer forecast that will continue through the end of the period. Unfortunately PoPs will remain on the lower side until a more substantial increase in moisture can occur, and this may take several days according to latest medium range. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 Scattered convection is possible again this afternoon, though models show slightly less coverage than previous days. Have only included VCSH for now due to low confidence in timing and coverage over any TAF site. Tonight, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, but have left mention out of each TAF for now. Monday, winds will shift to out of the south with scattered activity expected. Low level moisture is high, so any site that experiences rain tonight could see patchy fog development in the early morning. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 94 72 94 / 20 50 20 40 Anniston 74 94 75 93 / 30 50 20 40 Birmingham 75 95 75 93 / 20 50 20 40 Tuscaloosa 75 95 75 92 / 20 50 20 50 Calera 74 95 75 93 / 30 50 20 50 Auburn 75 91 75 92 / 50 70 20 40 Montgomery 76 94 75 93 / 40 60 20 50 Troy 74 94 73 93 / 50 60 20 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-Sumter- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...24