Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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439 FXUS64 KBMX 050602 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 102 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 903 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 Widely scattered evening convection is decreasing in coverage as we speak. Lowered the rain chances for several locations overnight. Believe much of the activity expected ahead of the approaching upper trough will be after sunrise on Friday. Due to the low level moisture pooling ahead of this feature, increased the pops on Friday. It appears that there may be a batch of convection that moves in during the morning hours and also redevelops/enhances in the afternoon. Not expecting any severe thunderstorms at this time, but some areas may experience heavy rainfall. It appears there will be enough sun that high temperatures reach the mid 90s in many locations and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through early Friday evening. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Friday) Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 Tonight. Mid-level ridging will contract slightly over the area while surface high pressure becomes positioned to the southeast while an outflow from convection across the Mid Mississippi River Valley Region migrates southeast along outflow boundaries that will move southeast into the Mid-South Region. Expect partly cloudy skies tonight with isolated showers lingering across the northwest with some thicker clouds expected. Winds will be form the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s areawide. Friday. More modest ridging will extend zonally over the Gulf Coast region while a trough dives southeast over the Midwest region during the day. A surface cold front will move southeast into the Mid-South Region during the morning and advance further southeast toward the area by midday. Expect increasing clouds from the northwest on Friday with increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms with best potential northwest through midday, then expanding southeast with time through the afternoon and into early evening. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low 90s northwest and in the higher terrain east to the mid 90s south and central. A heat advisory is being considered across much of our far southern counties and some of our west-central counties as thicker clouds and precipitation may not move into those areas until later in the day as temperatures and humidity values result in heat index values up to around 107 degrees by early afternoon in some spots. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 No major changes have been made to the previous long-term forecast this afternoon. Through Friday night, scattered to numerous showers and storms should be ongoing as the surface front moves into northwestern Alabama. With the loss of daytime heating, coverage will decrease, but at least scattered convection will remain possible through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. As drier air advects southward at the surface and aloft by Saturday afternoon, highest rain chances will remain across the southern half of Central Alabama by Saturday afternoon. Thankfully, heat indices will decrease due to the drier air, but we`ll stay hot as highs top out in the low to mid 90s. The surface front is still expected to move back northward by Sunday and into Monday as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly. Guidance trends are continuing to indicate a fairly wet pattern shaping up through much of next week, with a tropical airmass setting up and scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon hours through next Wednesday. 56/GDG Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 An amplified pattern for July will persist through the forecast period, with a trough over the north-central CONUS downstream of a strong ridge over the western CONUS. A weakness will extend down into the south-central CONUS, with Hurricane Beryl eventually spinning down in the Rio Grande vicinity. A subtropical ridge will persist over the eastern Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast, though not as strong as it has been recently. This will place Central Alabama under moist southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the guidance has been trending further south with the frontal passage Saturday though some guidance has recently trended back the other way. Therefore, did not make any big changes to the forecast over the weekend. A still warm but dry air mass will be in place north of the front, while south of the front a tropical-like air mass will persists with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Another heat advisory may be needed for some of the southeast counties Saturday depending on the progression of the front. The front should lift back to the north by Monday with the tropical-like air mass that has already been in place returning to all of Central Alabama. This combined with weak waves moving through the base of the trough should result in above average chances of showers and storms next week, though one wild card will be if the ridge over the eastern Gulf ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The increased coverage of showers and storms should help keep heat indices just below 105. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024 VFR conditions start the period at all forecast terminals. Will need to watch for low clouds and light fog developing around sunrise. For now, will hold off on reduced flight conditions given the current lack of development. A front and convective system will approach the area from the northwest after 12Z. Expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the day on Friday. Cigs could fall to MVFR with convection, but generally cigs will be in the 5-6kft range. Storms could produce heavy rainfall, reducing vis at times. Outside of a localized strong wind gust associated with a storm, winds will be at or less than 6kts. The front will slow and stall across the area, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the end of the period. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the day on Sunday. Following scattered showers and storms today, more widespread coverage is expected on Friday as a front moves into the region. With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west will average less than 10 mph through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 71 92 67 / 80 60 40 10 Anniston 94 74 91 70 / 80 60 50 10 Birmingham 94 74 92 72 / 80 60 40 10 Tuscaloosa 94 74 92 71 / 70 60 40 10 Calera 94 75 92 72 / 80 60 50 10 Auburn 93 75 92 73 / 70 60 80 20 Montgomery 94 74 94 73 / 70 60 80 20 Troy 94 74 93 72 / 70 60 80 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...14