954
FXUS63 KBIS 111806
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
106 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. The
  threat for severe storms is very low.

- Breezy and cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s.

- Smoke may again lead to reduced visibilities later today
  through tonight, especially west, and then clearing from west
  to east on Saturday.

- Otherwise dry this weekend with temperatures warming back
  into the 80s.

- A more active pattern returns for the start of next work
 week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers with a few thunderstorms over the James River Valley
continue to push east, but additional precipitation has
developedover northwest/north central North Dakota in area of
cyclonic flow. Still expect this to dissipate by early this
evening. Otherwise, only other key concern is the anticipated
return of smoke later today into the overnight. Models continue
to show this to occur, but should depart on Saturday through the
morning from west to east.

UPDATE
Issued at 937 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Broad area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
continues to slide off to the east through southern/eastern
portions of our area. This will continue through the day, with
some additional showers/a few storms possible over the far
north. Current area of smoke continues to advance east-
southeast more or less in conjunction with the precipitation,
with clearing in its wake. With that said, additional smoke
remains on tap to push into the area later this afternoon into
the night.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track eastward
across southwest and central ND this morning. Small hail and
locally gusty winds will be the main threats with this activity.
Precipitation has ended in the northwest for the time being,
but wrap around moisture will drop back into the northwest later
this morning and linger over the northern tier counties through
the day. Current convection southwest and central will exit the
JRV lat this afternoon or early evening. Patchy smoke over
central ND is expected to clear as the cold front pushes farther
east. Smoke is expected to rerun from the north later this
afternoon and tonight, especially over western ND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Currently, showers and a few thunderstorms were situated over
western ND, behind a cold front that is dropping southeast
through the state. In addition, surface smoke directly behind
the front is reducing visibilities into the 2-5SM range. We
think this initial smoke behind the front will be transient in
nature this morning. Additional surface smoke could rear it`s
ugly head again later today and into Saturday. More on that
later.

The threat for severe storms looks to be low today as in
general, instability aloft directly behind the front, remains
ahead of the increasing shear that also increases during the
day. Various CAMS have from time to time have indicated some
stronger cells as they track across the forecast area. An
isolated local gust or some small hail certainly can`t be ruled
out, but by and large, expect non severe thunderstorms today.
Later this afternoon as the shear catches up with the
instability, stronger thunderstorms will be possible, but by
this time the activity would most likely develop just to the
south and east of the forecast area.

It will be noticeably cooler and breezy today behind the cold
front today, which typically would be a refreshing break from
the heat and humidity. Unfortunately it looks like smoke from
Canadian wildfires will be drawn down into the forecast area
later today through tonight, both aloft and at the surface. The
current reduced visibilities directly behind the surface cold
front are not expected to last more than a few hours at any one
location. It`s later today and tonight when we could possibly
see some significant reductions to visibility. Current model
forecast show that surface smoke would be most concentrated over
western ND tonight and into Saturday morning. It does look like
models clear the smoke from west to east pretty quickly on
Saturday. Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 70s
to mid 80s.

Sunday will see highs mainly in the 80s, with a few lower 90
readings possible in the south. Although we heat up on Sunday,
surface high pressure and upper level ridging should help to
inhibit convection.

A northwest upper level flow pattern that remains in place
through the weekend begins to transition into a zonal flow early
in the work week, to even a broad upper trough over central and
eastern Canada below a Hudson Bay low. This would at least
temporarily bring a cooldown to the region. The latest NBM
ensemble guidance for Bismarck shows a rather large temperature
spread on Monday with a significant cooldown through mid-week,
and although we see a cooldown, the ensemble temperature spread
remains high through the remainder of the week, so the extent of
the cooldown early to mid-week and eventual warm-up late in the
week remains uncertain. Current guidance at the other main
forecast sites are similar.

Monday does look to be a transition day and if we see another
day of warm temperatures and we do see a cold frontal passage,
perhaps we see a potential for some stronger thunderstorms.
Currently the CSU ML page keeps the severe threat to our south
on Monday. Nevertheless, we do see increasing NBM pops later in
the day Monday and continuing into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms remain possible
over far northern North Dakota and over parts of the James River
Valley. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected. Areas of smoke
are expected to return late this afternoon into tonight to
western and central North Dakota, before gradually clearing out
from west to east on Saturday. This will result in areas of
reduced visibility, possibly to MVFR/IFR levels.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JJS