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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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524 FXUS63 KBIS 012225 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 525 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms through this evening for much of western and central North Dakota, excluding some northwestern portions. The main hazards are hail up to ping pong ball size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Wednesday, mainly in the southwest. - The chance for showers and thunderstorms on Independence Day is 60 to 80 percent across all of western and central North Dakota. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 525 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Around 445 PM CDT, multiple reports of funnel clouds were received north and east of Minot. Even though there is a risk of severe storms, these funnel clouds were not associated with that threat. Rather, they formed from developing showers/weak thunderstorms along a vorticity-rich surface boundary that is trackable on KMBX radar. These funnel clouds are very unlikely to reach the ground and cause any damage. The risk for funnel clouds will translate eastward into western McHenry County. A Special Weather Statement has been issued to address the funnel clouds. Thunderstorms farther to the south are not intensifying as expected. The 20Z special RAOB from Bismarck only sampled -10 J/kg SBCIN, but since then, low clouds have expanded, and the temperature at Bismarck has fallen around 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit. So far, there have been no notable reports of any winds or hail whatsoever, although dual-polarization radar data has suggested smaller, rain- coated hail at times. We have also seen bowing segments with favorable 0-3 km shear vector orientation fail to produce even 40 mph gusts. So it appears that the stable boundary layer has greatly limited the severe potential thus far. At 515 PM CDT, a line of semi-discrete storms was building northeast over Lake Oahe into Emmons County. These storms show some mid-level rotation on radar, and shear vector orientation orthogonal to the boundary could promote a continuation of the semi-discrete mode. The downstream environment does contain increasing low level SRH, but is also likely more stable per SPC mesoanalysis and satellite imagery inference. So far, storms have been progressive. But rainfall rates as high as 1 to 1.5 inches per hour have been reported, and the 20Z Bismarck RAOB sampled 1.62" precipitable water. Any areas that receive multiple rounds of storms this evening will have a localized risk for flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Cold front is still expected to bring showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are still expected. Main threats will be hail up to ping pong ball size and wind up to 60 MPH. These threats could be high if storm mode takes on more discrete characteristics. For the latest breakdown on the environment see the mesoscale discussion. Timing wise look for these stronger storms to get going mid to late afternoon then pushing eastward through the evening. Some breezy southerly winds are possible through this evening ahead of this front, although winds have generally trended lower than previous forecast today. Most of the severe weather will exit or dissipate tonight. A broad trough lingering in the north could bring an isolated shower or perhaps thunderstorm in these areas tonight, with a low threat for severe weather. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the 50s. This broad trough then looks to linger across the state on Tuesday, and perhaps bring a secondary cold front Tuesday afternoon through the evening. The result will be isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances through the day, with higher chances in the north. Instability and shear are limited for Tuesday, thus severe weather is not expected at this time. Look for temperatures in the 70s. Breezy northwest winds are also possible for Tuesday. The upper level winds are not particularly strong, and ECMWF EFI values are fairly low. Thus advisory level winds are not expected at this time. A quiet night with lows in the 50s are then expected for Tuesday night. Another broad trough still looks to push across the state on Wednesday. This could bring more scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. Instability still looks somewhat limited although shear is increased on this day. Perhaps an isolated stronger storm is possible, especially in the south. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk in the southwest. High temperatures on Wednesday will warm slightly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The broad trough could still develop a cutoff low across the region on Independence Day. This could still bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. Of note that some clusters have this low further south which would bring less rain to the are. This southern solution equates to about a 40% chance of occurring, with a 60% chance of the low maintaining a similar track that has been forecasted. Either solution would bring cooler temperatures to the area in the low to mid 70s. Clusters then show northwest flow through the Holiday weekend, although a building ridge in the west could attempt to push more eastward later in the weekend. Temperatures could warm to near normal as a result, and perhaps slightly warm if the ridge can build further inland. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found each day, with the potential for waves to traverse through this northwest flow. CSU-MLP pops for severe weather are low for severe weather during this time period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon and linger through this evening. MVFR to perhaps brief IFR conditions will be possible with these storms. Some MVFR ceilings may also be possible this afternoon ahead of these storms. Strong winds and large hail will also be possible with any stronger storm. Thunderstorms then push eastward tonight, with VFR conditions generally returning. There could however be some lingering MVFR ceilings through the night and into Tuesday morning. An isolated shower or thunderstorms is also possible tonight into Tuesday morning across the north, although confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Breezy northwest winds are also expected to return on Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin