641
FXUS61 KBGM 081320
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
920 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will give way to the approach of
Beryl advancing northeast toward the region along a frontal
boundary Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of Beryl look to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. That boundary
looks to stall just east of our region keeping low chances for
showers and thunderstorms into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
920 AM Update...

Valley fog has mostly dissipated, leaving mostly clear skies
across the area. Only minor changes to temps and winds made to
this update based on trends and high res guidance. The rest of
the forecast is on track.

630 AM Update...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update, forecast on track.

315 AM Update...
High pressure will in place throughout the region leading to a
mostly sunny day and light winds. Temperatures should warm fairly
quickly well into the 80`s for most locations. A few spots may also
hit 90. Mixed out the afternoon dewpoints again based on the RGEM
model again given the inverted V type model soundings. With that in
mind, peak heat index values look to be short of 95 degrees today. A
weak boundary over NE PA into the Western Catskills may just provide
enough lift for a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening. However, some capping is modeled with 700 mb temperatures
around 7-8C and CIN of 50-100 J/KG which will keep coverage on the
isolated side.

High clouds look to build in overnight so despite light winds,
valley fog potential is a bit more uncertain. To counter that
dewpoints look several degrees higher making fog easier to occur.
With the muggy airmass temperatures may not fall below 70 degrees
tonight.


We should be able to squeeze out one more sunny day Tuesday.
However, temperatures look to trend slightly warmer with highs
getting into the low 90`s. The added humidity looks to get heat
index values into the 95-100 degree range across most of the
region. Heat headlines may be issued as we get closer to Tuesday
afternoon, still some uncertainity at this time in terms of how
high those values will get.

Once again a few showers or thunderstorms may develop Tuesday
afternoon and evening along the decaying boundary over NE PA and in
NY east of I-81. Still some slight capping should keep the coverage
more on the isolated side again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM Update

The remnants of hurricane Beryl will be moving through Tuesday
night into Thursday bringing widespread heavy rain. Overnight
models have been a little slower and a little more east with the
track of the low with the heavier rain swath having a higher
chance of impacting our area. Tuesday night will have the low
still tracking up the Mississippi river into the Ohio River
Valley with a warm front bringing in deep tropical air with
precipitable water values over 2 inches as well as warm cloud
depths of over 12,000 feet. How far north this warm front lifts
will be critical in where the heaviest band of precipitation
sets up as many models eventually have this warm front slowing
and stalling. Ensemble probabilities of 24 hour rainfall greater
than an inch has increased across much of NY and especially
across northern NY with the Tug Hill on the southern side of
highest probabilities. Looking at the Extreme precipitation
forecasting table the ECMWF and GFS have consistently had
rainfall amounts of over 3 inches in 24 hours in some portion of
upstate NY in the last few runs. While it is still too far out
to know where this swath of heavy rain will be there is
increased confidence that some portion of our CWA may see
significant rainfall as the remnants of Beryl passes by. Flash
flooding and potentially some river flooding if the main axis of
heavy rain ends up in the headwaters of the Susquehanna or
Delaware river.

Another concern on Wednesday is if the remnant low passes by
just to the west of us and the warm front lifts north into
northern NY, we would be in the right quadrant of the low.
Forecast soundings in models show the warm sector of the remnant
low having good low level shear with good directional shear as
well. This would mean it would not be very difficult to get some
quick spin ups with the showers and thunderstorms that form in
the late morning into the evening on Wednesday. There will also
be good shear aloft as well with the 250 mb and 500 mb jet
located near by resulting in 0-6 km shear of 30 to 40 knots.

While the remnant low moves into Canada Wednesday night into
Thursday, the upper level trough remains to our west with the
deep moisture feeding into the low still advecting through our
region. There will not be as much forcing as there is on
Wenesday but still scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will
be present. PWATs remain high with most of the region at 1.5 to
2.0 inches so heavy rainfall rates will still occur with every
storm.

Thursday tries to have a dry slot push into the region from the
west. There will still be deep tropical moisture just off to
the east so if the the dry slot slows or stalls before getting
into CNY or NEPA, then there will be a continued threat of
frequent rain showers and thunderstorms with shear remaining
elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
340 AM Update

The long term is looking hot and unsettled. Ridging continues
though not looking quite as oppressive as it has been. The
strongest ridging has been trending towards the Central US and
front range of the Rockies with flow more zonal rather than SW
aloft. While this means it will be a little cooler but also
gives us better chances of ending up with a NW flow pattern on
the edge of a ridge resulting in chances for days with severe
thunderstorms or an MCS or two that are riding around the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog at ELM should stick around into the mid morning hours,
keeping IFR-LIFR conditions in place. Mainly VFR with light
winds across all terminals today. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms can not be ruled out this afternoon (18-22Z) near
KAVP and KBGM though the expected coverage is well under the
guidelines for TAF mention at this time. High VFR clouds coming
in may limit the potential for fog overnight at KELM though it
does remain possible.

Outlook...

Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday afternoon Through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms
possible, with associated restrictions. Most widespread activity
on Wednesday and early Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MWG