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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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119 FXUS61 KBGM 081732 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 132 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will give way to the approach of Beryl advancing northeast toward the region along a frontal boundary Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of Beryl look to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. That boundary looks to stall just east of our region keeping low chances for showers and thunderstorms into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1230 PM Update... Some fair weather cumulus clouds are building over the region but model soundings show a warm layer between 500-700mb that should cap any convection may try and get going. The best chance for showers will be east of I-81 in NEPA into the Catskills where a weak boundary is present and may provide enough lift to generate some isolated showers and thunderstorms. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most of the area for tomorrow from noon to 8pm. A surge of warm, humid air from the south will push temps into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This puts most of the area in heat indices of 95-103F. Right now, Bradford, Lackawanna and Wayne counties in PA have been left out as they do not reach criteria (100F). We will continue to monitor how the heat is modeled and will add these counties if needed. 920 AM Update... Valley fog has mostly dissipated, leaving mostly clear skies across the area. Only minor changes to temps and winds made to this update based on trends and high res guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track. 630 AM Update... Only minor changes with the sunrise update, forecast on track. 315 AM Update... High pressure will in place throughout the region leading to a mostly sunny day and light winds. Temperatures should warm fairly quickly well into the 80`s for most locations. A few spots may also hit 90. Mixed out the afternoon dewpoints again based on the RGEM model again given the inverted V type model soundings. With that in mind, peak heat index values look to be short of 95 degrees today. A weak boundary over NE PA into the Western Catskills may just provide enough lift for a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. However, some capping is modeled with 700 mb temperatures around 7-8C and CIN of 50-100 J/KG which will keep coverage on the isolated side. High clouds look to build in overnight so despite light winds, valley fog potential is a bit more uncertain. To counter that dewpoints look several degrees higher making fog easier to occur. With the muggy airmass temperatures may not fall below 70 degrees tonight. We should be able to squeeze out one more sunny day Tuesday. However, temperatures look to trend slightly warmer with highs getting into the low 90`s. The added humidity looks to get heat index values into the 95-100 degree range across most of the region. Heat headlines may be issued as we get closer to Tuesday afternoon, still some uncertainity at this time in terms of how high those values will get. Once again a few showers or thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along the decaying boundary over NE PA and in NY east of I-81. Still some slight capping should keep the coverage more on the isolated side again. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 340 AM Update The remnants of hurricane Beryl will be moving through Tuesday night into Thursday bringing widespread heavy rain. Overnight models have been a little slower and a little more east with the track of the low with the heavier rain swath having a higher chance of impacting our area. Tuesday night will have the low still tracking up the Mississippi river into the Ohio River Valley with a warm front bringing in deep tropical air with precipitable water values over 2 inches as well as warm cloud depths of over 12,000 feet. How far north this warm front lifts will be critical in where the heaviest band of precipitation sets up as many models eventually have this warm front slowing and stalling. Ensemble probabilities of 24 hour rainfall greater than an inch has increased across much of NY and especially across northern NY with the Tug Hill on the southern side of highest probabilities. Looking at the Extreme precipitation forecasting table the ECMWF and GFS have consistently had rainfall amounts of over 3 inches in 24 hours in some portion of upstate NY in the last few runs. While it is still too far out to know where this swath of heavy rain will be there is increased confidence that some portion of our CWA may see significant rainfall as the remnants of Beryl passes by. Flash flooding and potentially some river flooding if the main axis of heavy rain ends up in the headwaters of the Susquehanna or Delaware river. Another concern on Wednesday is if the remnant low passes by just to the west of us and the warm front lifts north into northern NY, we would be in the right quadrant of the low. Forecast soundings in models show the warm sector of the remnant low having good low level shear with good directional shear as well. This would mean it would not be very difficult to get some quick spin ups with the showers and thunderstorms that form in the late morning into the evening on Wednesday. There will also be good shear aloft as well with the 250 mb and 500 mb jet located near by resulting in 0-6 km shear of 30 to 40 knots. While the remnant low moves into Canada Wednesday night into Thursday, the upper level trough remains to our west with the deep moisture feeding into the low still advecting through our region. There will not be as much forcing as there is on Wenesday but still scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be present. PWATs remain high with most of the region at 1.5 to 2.0 inches so heavy rainfall rates will still occur with every storm. Thursday tries to have a dry slot push into the region from the west. There will still be deep tropical moisture just off to the east so if the the dry slot slows or stalls before getting into CNY or NEPA, then there will be a continued threat of frequent rain showers and thunderstorms with shear remaining elevated. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 340 AM Update The long term is looking hot and unsettled. Ridging continues though not looking quite as oppressive as it has been. The strongest ridging has been trending towards the Central US and front range of the Rockies with flow more zonal rather than SW aloft. While this means it will be a little cooler but also gives us better chances of ending up with a NW flow pattern on the edge of a ridge resulting in chances for days with severe thunderstorms or an MCS or two that are riding around the ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered to broken fair weather clouds expected across the area this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible near ELM/BGM/AVP late this afternoon or evening but coverage is too low to mention in the TAFs. ELM looks to have the best chance to see restrictions tonight. An influx of warm and humid air from the south will push dewpoints up to the upper 60s as temps bottom out in the upper 60s. Cloud cover will limit cooling but this should be counteracted by the increased surface moisture. Winds are expected to be light enough to allow fog to develop during the 8-12z period. This coverage time could increase in the next TAF set, especially if a rain shower occurs in the area. BGM and AVP have some weak signals for restrictions tonight, but confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAFs. Precipitation at or near the terminals will really help fog formation, but at this time, confidence in showers occurring is too low. ITH/SYR/RME should be VFR through the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR. Tuesday afternoon Through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. Most widespread activity on Wednesday and early Thursday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ043-044-047- 048. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...JTC