520
WTNT32 KNHC 080254
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY...
...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar has been
upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.

The Hurricane Warning south of Mesquite Bay has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Baffin Bay has been
discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Mesquite Bay to
Port Aransas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston
Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Mesquite Bay northward to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Mesquite Bay to Port Mansfield
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 95.6 West. Beryl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected overnight. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas
coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move
farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast early Monday.
Significant weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported a sustained wind
of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions will spread
across the warning area overnight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread across the tropical storm
warning area in south Texas overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the upper Texas coast early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O`Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O`Connor, TX...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night.
Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated
major river flooding is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight along the middle and
upper Texas Coast, and on Monday across parts of east Texas,
Louisiana, and Arkansas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day
or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart