359
WTNT32 KNHC 071758
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine
Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston
Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Baffin Bay, Texas to North Entrance of the Padre Island
National Seashore

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter near latitude 26.3
North, longitude 95.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is expected
to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast
on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected
to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday. Beryl is
forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern
Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to
become a hurricane again later today.  Continued strengthening is
expected overnight before Beryl reaches the Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches)
based on Air Force data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by early Monday.  Winds are first expected to reach tropical
storm strength by late today, making outdoor preparations difficult
or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in south Texas starting within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the upper Texas coast early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mesquite Bay, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX... 3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning today through Monday
night. This rainfall will produce areas of flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding is also expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper
Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas and western
Louisiana on Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day
or two.  These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake