732
WTNT42 KNHC 052045
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except
for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data
from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become
less organized.  The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the
inner core.

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt.  There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States.  After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope.  The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico this evening.  After that, it could take
12-24 h for the cyclone`s structure to recover over the Gulf of
Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during
this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly
shear.  Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity
guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start
around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit
generous.  However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence.  This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening.  The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional
watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2.  Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.

4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.2N  89.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0600Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1800Z 23.2N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 24.3N  94.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.3N  95.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 26.5N  96.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 27.8N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...AT COAST
 96H  09/1800Z 30.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1800Z 32.5N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven