401
WTNT42 KNHC 031447
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/16.  A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so.  The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman
Islands tonight.  After that, the system should reach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by 60 h.  Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of
Mexico.  This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening.  The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope.  Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment.  The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next
few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning
Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions
of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the
progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 17.1N  76.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.8N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.5N  82.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 19.0N  85.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 19.7N  88.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 60H  06/0000Z 20.5N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1200Z 21.5N  92.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 25.5N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven