313
WTNT42 KNHC 041445
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear.
Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open
to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring
in the southwestern semicircle.  This matches the asymmetric cloud
pattern seen in satellite imagery.  Data from the NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt,
and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb.  Based on
this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100
kt.  The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the
aircraft data.

The initial motion is 285/16.  There is little change in either the
track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous
advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should
cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next
day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a
landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h.  After that, Beryl
should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United
States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes
landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h.  While the guidance
has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance
landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast,
and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150
miles.  Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region
for the worst hazards.  The new official forecast is similar to, but
a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the
consensus models.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving
west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with
westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl.  While the shear could
decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease
enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula.  This part of the new intensity forecast follows
the trend of the intensity guidance.  Beryl should weaken more
after landfall.  There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone
may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow
intensification during that time.  This is reflected in the new
intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength
right at landfall on the western Gulf coast.


Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of
flooding are occurring in the Cayman Islands where a Hurricane
Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning
tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.

4. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 19.0N  82.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 19.5N  85.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.1N  87.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/0000Z 20.9N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/1200Z 22.0N  92.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  07/0000Z 23.0N  94.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 23.9N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 25.5N  97.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1200Z 28.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven