Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
035 FONT12 KNHC 031447 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 9(33) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 20(37) X(37) 1(38) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 32(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 92(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 48(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTEGO BAY 50 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MONTEGO BAY 64 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) KINGSTON 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN