Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
996 FONT12 KNHC 042035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 2(18) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) 2(32) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 3(23) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 2(26) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 7(56) 1(57) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) 1(23) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 57(59) 15(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MERIDA MX 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 62 20(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) COZUMEL MX 64 15 20(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN