Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
536 FONT12 KNHC 050846 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 1(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 2(18) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 7(30) 1(31) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) 2(29) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10(32) 2(34) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 2(25) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 36(43) 7(50) 1(51) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 1(22) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 1(27) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 3(40) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 8(43) 2(45) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 40(71) 2(73) 1(74) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 2(38) 1(39) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 24 54(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) MERIDA MX 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COZUMEL MX 64 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN