Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
706 FONT12 KNHC 022040 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 5(33) X(33) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 52(67) X(67) X(67) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 14(33) X(33) X(33) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAMAGUEY 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 69(72) 18(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 30(30) 30(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 10(10) 23(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 81(83) 14(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MONTEGO BAY 50 X 31(31) 44(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MONTEGO BAY 64 X 8( 8) 34(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) KINGSTON 34 2 96(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 X 85(85) 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) KINGSTON 64 X 62(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LES CAYES 34 68 17(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) LES CAYES 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 52 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CAPE BEATA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAPE BEATA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN