928
AXNT20 KNHC 040907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 18.5N 81.0W at 04/0900 UTC or
50 nm SSE of Grand Cayman, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are currently around
35 ft. Numerous strong convection is observed within 60 nm of the
center of Beryl. Scattered moderate isolated strong is observed
elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, and from 18N to 22N between
72W and 85W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of
the Cayman Islands early today and over the Yucatan Peninsula
early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward. Beryl is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl
is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity today as it
passes by the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected
thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until
it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands
today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10
inches, later today into Friday. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are anticipated. There remains uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. Interests in eastern Mexico and southern Texas
should monitor the progress of Beryl. Regardless of the exact
track, rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across
much of the Gulf coast. Large swells generated by Beryl are
currently impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands. These swells are expected to spread to the
Yucatan Peninsula and portions of Central America later today and
to eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late
Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is from 22N32W to 02N35W, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. The broad tropical wave is embedded in
dry Saharan air, suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 66.5W,
south of 20N to across Puerto Rico and into Venezuela, moving
rapidly westward at around 25 kt. Fresh to strong easterly winds
associated with this wave cover much of the NE Caribbean, along
with 7 to 8 ft seas. Some remnant 7 to 9 ft seas are east of the
Lesser Antilles. Development, if any, of this system should be
slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward at 20 to 25 kt across the Caribbean Sea during the
next several days. This system is then forecast to cross the
Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
early next week where some development could occur. Gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the
Greater Antilles over the next few days. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days is low. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 15N27W to
07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 04.5N50W. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 33W to 61W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf early Fri.

A few showers are located in the NE Gulf. Generally dry
conditions prevail elsewhere. Winds are moderate or weaker across
the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft north of 25N and east of 95W, and 2
to 4 ft elsewhere, except to 5 ft near the Yucatan Channel in
arriving Beryl SE swells.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 18.5N 81.0W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 968 mb. Beryl will move to 19.0N 83.6W this afternoon, 19.5N
86.7W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
20.3N 89.2W Fri afternoon, 21.2N 91.5W Sat morning, 22.3N 93.6W
Sat afternoon, and 23.3N 95.3W Sun morning. Beryl will strengthen
to a hurricane over 25.2N 97.6W early Mon. There remains some
uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea including related to
Invest 96L.

Most of the basin is under the influence of Hurricane Beryl,
located SE of the Cayman Islands, and Invest 96L, positioned in
the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trades are in the
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6 to 11 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring in the NW
Caribbean. Light and variable winds are found in the SW Caribbean,
along with 6 to 11 ft seas due to swell related to Beryl.
Scattered thunderstorms are found in the SW Caribbean from the
coast of Colombia to offshore Panama to the coast of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 18.5N 81.0W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 968 mb. Beryl will move to 19.0N 83.6W this afternoon, 19.5N
86.7W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
20.3N 89.2W Fri afternoon, 21.2N 91.5W Sat morning, 22.3N 93.6W
Sat afternoon, and 23.3N 95.3W Sun morning. Beryl will strengthen
to a hurricane over 25.2N 97.6W early Mon. A surge of fresh to
strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move
across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, associated
with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will
then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N60W and
continues to 28N70W, where it transitions to a stationary front
to 31N76W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on satellite
imagery north of 26N and between 55W and 66W ahead of the cold
front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the
influence of an expansive 1025 mb high pressure system centered
near the Azores The pressure gradient between this ridge and
Hurricane Beryl supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds
between the Bahamas and Cuba and Hispaniola, including the
entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7
ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 6-9 ft
are present south of 20N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, except locally fresh winds
north of 10N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl in the NW Caribbean
and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic basin. A weak
cold front stretches from 31N60W to 28N70W, continuing as
stationary to 31N76W. The front will stall and dissipated through
the end of the week. High pressure will prevail otherwise with
mainly gentle to moderate return flow, locally fresh to strong
near Hispaniola at times.

$$
Lewitsky