420
AXNT20 KNHC 032309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 17.5N 77.6W at 03/2100 UTC or
60 nm WSW of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica,
recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind
gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). Large swells generated by Beryl are currently
impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
Jamaica. These swells are expected to reach the coasts of Costa
Rica, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba
this evening, and they are expected to reach the coasts of
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by midday
Thursday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica during
the next few hours. After that, the center is expected to pass
near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move
over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early
Friday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 31W, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers within this wave are
mainly linked to the monsoon trough currently extending along 09N.

A tropical wave (Invest 96L) is moving across the Lesser Antilles
with axis near 62W. The wave is moving westward rapidly at 15-20
kt. Winds of 20 to 25 kt are noted with this wave. Scattered
moderate convection prevails from 11N-17N between 60W-68W.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles through this
evening. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 17N16W and
continues SW to 06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 06N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the
monsoon/ITCZ between 20W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night and Fri.

High pressure along the eastern United States extends a ridge
across the eastern and central Gulf, and is supporting light to
gentle E to SE winds along with slight seas basin-wide. Highest
seas are noted across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the ridge across the northern Gulf will linger
through Thu in advance of Hurricane Beryl, now moving along the
southern coast of Jamaica. Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW
motion across the Caribbean and weaken slowly, moving inland over
the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.5N 88.2W, and weakening
to a tropical storm. Beryl is expected to emerge off the western
Yucatan Peninsula near 20.4N 90.7W Fri evening and turn more NW,
reaching near 21.9N 93.9W Sat afternoon, then strengthen to a
hurricane near 24N 96.9W Sun afternoon, and move inland across the
Tamaulipas, Mexico coast late Sun evening. There remains some
uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Aside from Hurricane Beryl, fast moving tropical wave (Invest 96L)
currently over the Lesser Antilles is racing across the E
Caribbean and generating scattered moderate convection. Aside
from the convection associated with the wave, strong winds and
moderate seas are also accompanying this wave that currently has
low chances of development. See the Tropical Waves Section for
further details.

With the Azores High pressure ridge in place just N of the basin,
fresh to strong trade winds prevail in the central Caribbean
while NE winds of the same magnitude are ongoing in the NW basin.
Fresh to strong winds over the central region. Rough seas in the
8-12 ft range associated with Major Hurricane Beryl continue to
affect the central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin as well.

For the forecast, Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion and
weaken slowly, reaching near 18.1N 80.3W tonight, near 18.7N
83.7W Thu afternoon, near 19.2N 86.7W Thu night, and then move
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.5N 88.2W,
where it will weaken to a tropical storm. Beryl will then turn
more NW and move across the western Gulf of Mexico Fri evening
through Sun night. A surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas,
and numerous squalls is expected to move across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Fri, associated with Invest 96L. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the
central and NW Caribbean this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing over the
offshore waters N of 27N between 56W and 63W, in association with
a surface trough, analyzed from 31N61W to 29N68W. Moderate to
fresh winds are associated with the trough. To the N, a frontal
boundary extends along 31N and W of 62W. Scattered showers are
also ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the
Windward Passage as Hurricane Beryl is just S of the area over the
NW Caribbean. Otherwise, the entire subtropical Atlantic waters
are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge, which
is maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E winds across most of
the region, except for fresh winds across the Greater Antilles
adjacent waters. Seas across the region are moderate in the 4 to 7
ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic high pressure
extends a weak ridge southwestward to N Florida will continue to
support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north
of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas
south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through
early Fri as Hurricane Beryl exits the Caribbean. Meanwhile, a
decaying cold front from 30N to 31N will sink south to 29N through
early Thu, then stall and dissipate through Fri night. High
pressure will build westward and into the Bahamas over the
weekend.

$$
ERA