484
AXNT20 KNHC 020910
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 14.6N 66.9W at 02/0900 UTC or
320 nm SE of Isla Beata Dominican Republic, moving WNW at 19 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 43 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within
90 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted in a band between 90 nm and 240 nm in the E semicircle.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 150
nm in the W semicircle. Beryl is forecast to continue moving
rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days and turn
westward by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl
will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean
Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and
the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Cuba, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today or Wednesday. Beryl is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to
be near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central
Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman
Islands on Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter,
though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern
Caribbean. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much
of Jamaica on Wednesday. Large swells generated by Beryl will
continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during
the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the
southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For
the latest Beryl and remnants of Chris NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 20W, south of
18N, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between the
coast of Africa and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 44.5W,
south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between
44.5W and 48.5W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt with
seas of 7 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development of this system while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central and western
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should still
monitor the progress of this system, with heavy rainfall possible
midweek. This system has a low chance of development in the next
48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 13N
between 76W and 83.5W, and from 13N to 20N between the tropical
wave axis and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N35W to
11N44W to 06N55W. For details on convection, please read the
Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Major Hurricane Beryl over the Eastern Caribbean which may impact
the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week and weekend.

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores extends
southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico. The weak pressure gradient
across the basin result in moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas. A few storms currently in the southern Bay of
Campeche developed yesterday evening over the western Yucatan.
Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will linger
through Thu in advance of Hurricane Beryl now in the eastern
Caribbean. Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.6N 66.9W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 935 mb. Beryl will move to 15.5N 69.6W this afternoon, 16.5N
73.4W Wed morning, 17.4N 76.8W Wed afternoon, 18.2N 80.2W Thu
morning, 18.7N 83.6W Thu afternoon, and 19.3N 86.7W Fri morning.
Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.2N 91.8W early Sat.
Meanwhile, moderate seas in the western Gulf due to dissipated
Chris will subside through early today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Major Hurricane Beryl over the Eastern Caribbean.

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on associated
convection.

Outside of the influence of Beryl, fresh to strong easterly trade
winds are evident in the central Caribbean Sea, with the
strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia and south of Hispaniola.
Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is south of the area near
14.6N 66.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Beryl will continue to move
WNW and across the Caribbean through late Thu, and inland across
the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night, remaining south of the area.
Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge
southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh
trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will
be locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the
next several days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying
cold front may drop south of 31N tonight through Wed night,
potentially stalling and lingering near 30N through the end of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Major Hurricane Beryl over the Eastern Caribbean.

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on Invest 96L.

An expansive 1033 mb high pressure system centered west of the
Azores near 39.5N38W dominates the tropical Atlantic. An upper
level low near 32N56W supports scattered moderate convection
north of 29N between 53W and 58W. Similar convection is noted near
the central Bahamas and northeast of the NW Bahamas, as well as
NE of the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft
seas are south of 22N and west of 40W outside of the influence of
Invest 96L. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are north of 22N and west of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
between the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands, continuing
southwestward to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in
this area. Gentle to moderate wins and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail
across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Beryl is south of
the area near 14.6N 66.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-
northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts
to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Beryl will
continue to move WNW and across the Caribbean through late Thu,
and inland across the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night, remaining south
of the area. Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will
extend a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N.
Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola through the next several days as Beryl moves through
the Caribbean. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N tonight
through Wed night, potentially stalling and lingering near 30N
through the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky