222
AXNT20 KNHC 201005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave near 89W, along the Yucatan
coast and in the western Gulf of Honduras, then extending S across
Central America. It is moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection stretches E from this wave to around
84W, impacting the Gulf of Honduras and coastal areas of Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the basin from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau, continues to 10N24W and 07N32W. The ITCZ the stretches
from 10N24W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
south of the trough but near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between the
central Africa coast and 35W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is trigger
numerous moderate convection across the Caribbean Waters near
Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough over the Florida peninsula is inducing
numerous moderate convection over the Florida Straits and Keys.
Otherwise, high pressure of 1013 mb centered offshore the Florida
panhandle is dominating Gulf weather, bringing dry conditions,
light to gentle winds, and seas of less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in
the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next
week over the NW Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form
as the system moves slowly to the N or NW over the NW Caribbean
Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part
of next week. Regardless of development, winds and seas will start
increasing across the SE Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the above sections for details on convection in the western
Caribbean associated with a tropical wave and the eastern
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, there is
no significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident in the central basin.
Mainly gentle SE to E winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are seen across
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected across the E and central Caribbean through at least Sat.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next
week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of
Mexico through the middle part of next week. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough that extends roughly along the Gulf Stream
offshore Florida is inducing scattered moderate convection. 1007
mb low pressure centered near 25N55W is generating scattered
moderate convection within about 120 nm from its center, with a
broad area of mainly fresh E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft N of 25N
and E of 60W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some tropical development of this system while it
meanders in the Subtropical Atlantic through early next week, and
there is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.

To the east, another low pressure, of 1008 mb, is associated with
the remnants of Gordon. This low is centered near 27N44W. This low
has become a bit more organized overnight, but convection
associated with it is mainly displaced E of the center, N of 27N
between 35W and 44W. In and near this zone of scattered moderate
convection, fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
prevail. Some development of these remnants is possible over the
next day or two as the low moves N or NNE. Thereafter, conditions
are forecast to be less conducive for development. Refer the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to
6 ft dominate most of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, aside from the aforementioned low
pressure near 25N55W, a weak cold front will move off the SE
coast of the US today and slowly move across the waters N of 25N
through Mon.

$$
Konarik