934
AXNT20 KNHC 061031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 22.2N 91.3W at 06/0900 UTC
or 470 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently
19 ft. Beryl is expected to take a turn to the NW later today and
then NNW by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl is expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday into
Monday morning. Little change in strength is expected today, but
strengthening is expected to begin by Sunday, and Beryl is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast.
Additionally, large swells generated by Beryl are currently
impacting portions of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The
swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf
Coast of the U.S. shortly. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident on
satellite imagery from 07N to 10N between 20W and 24W. The wave
is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms north of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted from 05N to 12N between 46W and 50W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper
level low over eastern Cuba resulting in numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection from western Cuba to northern Colombia
and between 71W and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from
07N40W to 07N49W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 11N between 14W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the south-central Gulf.

Aside from Beryl, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted in the nearshore waters of the NE Gulf. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a weak high pressure system
positioned in the NE Gulf. Except for the south- central Gulf,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
rest of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 22.2N 91.3W at 5
AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will move to 23.3N 92.7W this
afternoon, 24.4N 94.3W Sun morning, 25.6N 95.5W Sun afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 27.0N 96.4W Mon morning, 28.5N
96.7W Mon afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 30.3N 96.5W Tue morning. Beryl will weaken to a
tropical depression while moving inland over 32.9N 94.0W early
Wed. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the western
Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast over the next
few days. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores
continues to extend southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America and the tropical wave along 78W support
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern and north-
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 22.2N 91.3W at 5
AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will move to 23.3N 92.7W this
afternoon, 24.4N 94.3W Sun morning, 25.6N 95.5W Sun afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 27.0N 96.4W Mon morning, 28.5N
96.7W Mon afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 30.3N 96.5W Tue morning. Beryl will weaken to a
tropical depression while moving inland over 32.9N 94.0W early
Wed. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the western
Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast over the next
few days. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Beryl.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A broad upper level low located SW of Bermuda is interacting with
a surface trough that extends from 31N63W to a 1012 mb low near
27N76W to 24N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted north of 22N and between 60W and 71W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-
force southerly winds with this convection. Gusts to gale force
are likely occurring with the strongest convection. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft, but higher seas are likely found in the areas
with the strongest convection. Farther south, a weak surface
trough stretches across the SE Bahamas, producing a few showers
north of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent in the rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge located west of the Azores. The pressure
gradient betwen the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa
and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N
and east of 33W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough continues to stretch from
31N63W to 25N79W with strong thunderstorms noted on the eastern
side of the trough, N of 24N and E of 71W. This trough will
continue to linger through the weekend before dissipating. High
pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the
northern coast of Hispaniola later in the weekend.

$$
AReinhart