428
AXNT20 KNHC 071220
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES TO INCLUDE INFORMATION FROM THE 1200 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM BERYL

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 25.5N 94.9W at 07/1200 UTC
or 200 nm SSE of Matagorda Texas, moving NW at 10 kt. This motion
should continue through today. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 29N
between 90W and 97W. Peak seas are 23 ft. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north
on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected
to make landfall on the Texas coast Monday morning. Strengthening
is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again
later today or tonight before it reaches the Texas coast. Swells
generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much
of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident on satellite
imagery from 08N to 10N and near the trough axis. The wave is
embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms north of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from
12N to 19N between 52W and 58W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 23N,
moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper
level low located south of the Cayman Islands, resulting in
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 22N and
between 76W and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 09N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from
07N40W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N
to 16N between 13W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the western Gulf of Mexico.

A weak 1016 mb high pressure system continues in the NE Gulf
waters. Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are found in the eastern Gulf waters and Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 25.3N 94.6W at 5
AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
995 mb. Beryl will move to 26.3N 95.4W this afternoon, strengthen
to a hurricane near 28.1N 96.1W Mon morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 30.2N 96.1W Mon afternoon, move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.5N 95.1W Tue
morning, inland to 34.7N 93.3W Tue afternoon, and inland to 36.7N
91.6W Wed morning. Beryl will move inland near 40.5N 87.0W early
Thu. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the western
Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast through Mon.
High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with conditions
improving Monday night into Tuesday as Beryl moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the influence of the tropical wave, fairly tranquil
conditions are evident on satellite imagery in the central and
eastern Caribbean. A 1030 mb high pressure system centered over
the north Atlantic extends southwestward into the basin. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off northern
Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are
expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean through
midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf
of Honduras tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the NW Caribbean today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A broad upper level low positioned near 31N71W is interacting
with a surface trough extending from the NW Bahamas to near
Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring north of 23N and between 67W and 81W. Moderate to fresh
E-SE winds are noted from 55W to 72W. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 72W, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge located SW of the Azores. The pressure gradient
betwen the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the
deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N and
east of 37W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough extending from 31N68W to
the northern Bahamas will linger through Mon before dissipating.
Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly
gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse
off the northern coast of Hispaniola today and Mon.

$$
AReinhart/Mahoney