351
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES WITH THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
FOR TROPICAL STORM BERYL

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 26.3N 95.3W at 07/1800 UTC
or 140 nm SSE of Matagorda Texas, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 24N to 28N west of 93W. Peak seas are 24 ft. The
current general motion is expected to continue through tonight,
with a turn toward the north forecast on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the
middle Texas coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast to turn
northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and
Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday. Steady strengthening is
expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again later
today. Continued strengthening is expected overnight before Beryl
reaches the Texas coast. Swells generated by Beryl are expected
to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S.
during the next day or two. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are
near Barbados and the Windward Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N to 17N west of 80W, including coastal regions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, and over the western Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Dakar, Senegal,
near 15N17W to 06N43W where the ITCZ then continues to 05N52W near
Cayenne, French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the either side of the Monsoon Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details
on Tropical Storm Beryl.

1016 mb high pressure system persists in the NE Gulf waters.
Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are found
in the eastern Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will strengthen to a
hurricane near 27.1N 95.7W this evening, then move inland to 29.2N
96.2W Mon morning. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across
the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast
through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with
conditions improving Monday night into Tuesday as Beryl moves
inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
tropical wave and its convection in the western Caribbean Sea.

The subtropical high pressure centered north of the area has
expended south and west, providing for a tighter pressure
gradient, faster winds, and building seas across the central
Caribbean. Satellite scatterometer this morning indicates fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean, with 7-10 ft seas. Mainly
moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are
expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean through
midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf
of Honduras tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the NW Caribbean today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The surface trough from Cape Canaveral, FL across the northern
Bahamas to 31N69W has begun to gradually lift north today.
Scattered moderate convection currently is from 25N to 31N between
67W and 75W. Satellite scatterometer returned moderate to fresh S
winds near the surface trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades
and 4-7 ft seas prevail basin-wide. Light winds and seas are
analyzed within the Gulf Stream.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic surface trough
will linger through Mon before dissipating. Otherwise, high
pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the
northern coast of Hispaniola today and Mon.

$$
Mahoney