388
FXUS63 KAPX 040258
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1058 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant 4th of July expected.

- Showers and storms are expected to continue at times this
  weekend and next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Current forecast remains on track as ongoing showers across the
eastern U.P. and Tip of the Mitt continue to track east. This
activity is expected to diminish/move out over the next few
hours, leaving dry conditions through the remainder of tonight.
As mentioned in the short term below, localized fog development
cannot be ruled out late tonight. Mostly to partly sunny skies
with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s are in store
for Independence Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Cold front responsible for last nights and this mornings showers has
exited off into Lake Huron...made to do so by broad mid/upper level
troughing digging across the northern Conus...including the Great
Lakes. Classic west synoptic flow convergence axis setting up across
interior eastern upper Michigan this afternoon, with just enough
remnant low level moisture to kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms as we head through the remainder of this afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions with ever so slowly decreasing clouds
across the majority of the Northwoods, with temperature rebounding
well up into the 70s for most.

Secondary and weak surface trough expected to work into the area
tonight, to be followed by low amplitude shortwave ridging and
attendant weak surface high for the 4th of July.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Lingering shower/storm concerns into tonight. Temperature and cloud
trends through the forecast.

Details:

Still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to impact
parts of eastern upper Michigan the remainder of this afternoon into
early evening. Not out of the question for a stronger storm or two,
with decent wind shear through the convective cloud layer and
localized pockets of enhanced low level convergence. At least some
potential for a few showers to develop along that secondary surface
trough later this evening into northwest lower Michigan. Convective
allowing guidance sounding analysis shows just enough
convergence/updraft potential to perhaps slide by elevated cap.
Definitely not sold on this idea, and like the thought of just
carrying some slight chance wording to cover. Otherwise, looking at
dry conditions with perhaps a bit of local early morning fog.

4th of July setting up to be a pleasant one as weak high pressure
settles overhead. Not completely out of the question to see an
isolated afternoon shower across northeast lower and eastern upper
Michigan where lake breeze generated convergence will be maximized.
A warm Holiday under generally partly cloud skies, with highs
ranging from the middle 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing will keep the Great Lakes Region active
throughout the long-term. A deepening low pressure system will track
into the region for the weekend brining showers/storms. Weak
shortwave ridging builds in behind before another low pressure is
expected to track into the region early next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Weekend Precipitation Chances:  A trough and its associated low
pressure will dig across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region
for Friday/ Saturday. Current guidance continues to show moderate
instability and a deep moisture fetch (PWATS above 1.2") into the
region for this weekend. As such, WPC continues to have Northern
Michigan under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday.

-Next Week Precipitation Chances: Behind the aforementioned trough,
a shortwave ridge will build overhead Saturday night into Sunday
morning providing some relief in the active weather. However, this
break will be short-lived as another low pressure tracks towards the
area for the start of next week (Sunday afternoon/ Monday).
Temperatures will be cooler next week with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 70s for most areas through at least mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
majority of the issuance period. The exception may be CIU at times
this evening if any strong showers/storms track over the TAF site.
Localized FG/BR development is possible tonight with partly/mostly
clear skies and weak winds, with MBL being the TAF site most likely
to be impacted by any potential drops in VSBY. However, confidence
in FG/BR is not currently high enough to explicitly include mention
in the TAFs. Otherwise, FEW/SCT cu is anticipated during the day
Thursday with west winds of 5-10 kts in place and potential lake
breeze formation pushing inland from Lake Huron during the
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC