194
FXUS63 KAPX 070212
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1012 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms Monday, a few may be strong.

- Scattered thunderstorms again on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Remarkably persistent diurnally-enhanced showers continue to
percolate within regions of low level convergence maxima (both
from lake breezes and earlier moist convection) this
evening...with radar estimates showing over 2 inches of rain
falling across southwest Roscommon County. Loss of all diurnal
support should put an end to these showers within the next few
hours. Only concern thereafter is potential for fog to develop,
especially in areas that have experienced significant rains of
late. Some of this fog could become a bit dense through the
early morning hours. Lows tonight ranging through the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Slight upper level ridging will build over head tonight. Drier
air aloft will seep in as well, setting up a mostly clear night
with calm winds. Patchy fog chances tonight in low spots and
near lakes and rivers. High chances for fog to remain patchy due
to shallow moisture near the surface. Warm temperatures, light
winds and partly cloudy skies tomorrow. A lake breeze will
likely form and help afternoon CU bubble up, however low to no
chances for showers out of these as instability will be minimal.
Skies will start to fill in towards the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Trough slides east later Sunday into Monday across Upper Midwest,
then washes out to the northeast into Tuesday resulting in periods of
showers and thunderstorms. General north to south, or northwest to
southeast flow aloft into the middle to latter portions of next week
as sfc high pressure builds into the region. No major frontal
systems, at least ones of varying moisture content as dewpoints
remain in the 50s and 60s through the week. Upper low in the
vicinity of Michigan into next weekend, but not progged to have a
whole lot of consequence at this time.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Southwest flow out ahead of an approaching upper feature, slow
moving at that, Sunday night into Monday will result in clouds and
showers overnight and into the morning. Instability will increase,
on the order of ~1000J/kg, during the afternoon hours and this will
result in the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Progged
soundings show a modest environment overall, modest mid level lapse
rates, ~30KTs of bulk shear/EBWD, thus an environment capable of
producing strong thunderstorms (gusty winds, hail) given the right
thermodynamic structure and storm mode is able to manifest. Unclear
on how morning cloud cover/showers will impact the environment
throughout the day but overall the potential remains for at least
isolated strong thunderstorms in addition to areas of heavy rain.
Not that all the eggs should be put in a basket via the 3km NAM,
especially at the very end of the fcst cycle, but it does show some
strong storms developing across northern lower Michigan. We`ll see
how the atmosphere evolves in the coming fcst cycles.

The atmosphere remains unstable on Tuesday, but with less shear and
lift to work. Thus, thunderstorm threat will remain but largely sub-
severe, at least the current thinking. Nevertheless, scattered
storms expected especially east of 75 with locally heavy rain a
threat.

High pressure builds into the region later next week limiting
overall storm coverage, although the moisture never really flushes
out of the region entirely so may be an isolated chance here and
there. Overall benign temperature swings as we remain within a few
degrees of climatological normals. Murky thereafter but current
guidance not pointing to anything large scale nor significant within
this time frame at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Still anticipating the formation of MVFR to IFR producing
fog/mist and stratus early this morning, especially targeting
KCIU and KMBL. Expect fog/mist and stratus to rapidly burn off
after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under some
scattered high clouds and relatively high based cumulus. Light
winds with local lake breeze development this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB/ELD
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB