749
FXUS63 KAPX 161347
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
  linger into today and this evening.

- Isolated/scattered showers and storms Wednesday with cooler
  weather through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Current satellite shows low clouds blanketing northern lower
this morning as rain showers have exited the region. These
clouds will slowly clear out this morning, with skies becoming
mostly clear by the afternoon hours. Surface observations depict
northwest to north winds building in as the cooler and drier air
continues to work its way over MI. A slight chances for a few
isolated showers and storms exists near Saginaw Bay if the lake
breeze can form this afternoon. Otherwise temperatures will cool
into Wednesday. Northwest to north winds will be breezy at times
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

     Small chances of showers and storms linger today into this
evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...The chance of non-severe
thunderstorms will linger today into this evening for locations
southeast of a line from APN to CAD.

Cold front continues to make slow eastward progress thru the Western
Great Lakes early this morning...now extending from SE Ontario thru
the Straits area into Southern Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa. Broken
line of showers and storms continue to fire just ahead of this
front...impacting the SE half of our CWA attm. Overall trends have
been downward in both areal coverage and intensity as we head toward
the typical diurnal instability minimum during the early morning
hours. Also...prominent instability axis in advance of the front has
dropped south of our CWA.

Cold front will continue to slowly push southeast thru Northern
Lower Michigan this morning...tending to stall a bit as it reaches
the Saginaw Bay area. Meanwhile...rather sharp upper level trough
axis will begin to swing into the Western Great Lakes region this
afternoon...reaching Upper Michigan and Eastern Wisconsin by 12Z
Wednesday. Arrival of cooler air aloft combined with some increase
in cyclonic flow ahead of this trough...slowed eastward progress of
the surface cold front and the development of lake breeze boundaries
off of Lake Huron this afternoon may very well lead to the
development of some additional showers/isold thunderstorms for our
SE CWA this afternoon/evening. Very limited instability (500 J/kg or
less) and lack of vertical wind shear will keep any storms that
develop today into this evening sub-severe.

High temps this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s
across Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan to the low 80s near
Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid 50s to near 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A trough, originating from Canada, will sweep across the Great Lakes
Region for Wednesday. By Thursday, troughing will exit the forecast
area Thursday into Friday, as ridging/ pressure rises move into the
area. Surface high pressure is still expected to build overhead
across the Northern Woods for the second half of the week into next
week, promoting less active weather.

FORECAST DETAILS:

Rain chances will increase as the day goes on Wednesday, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
Precipitation chances will then decrease as we head into Thursday as
aforementioned pressure rises build into the region promoting drier
weather through the week. Northerly winds will filter in cooler,
drier air, making way for cooler daytime temperatures for Wednesday
and Thursday, especially Thursday night. This looks to drop high
temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s through Thursday, with
overnight lows dipping well into the 40s across interior areas
Thursday night with calm winds and clear skies. Temperatures are
then expected to warm back up close to average heading into this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A cold front will continue to slowly push east thru Michigan
during the morning hours. Upper level trough axis and secondary
cold front will being to swing into the Western Great Lakes
region this afternoon into this evening...helping to generate
some scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly
across areas along and south of a line from APN to CAD as lake
breeze boundaries develop during the heat of the day. Prevailing
conditions will remain mostly VFR/MVFR. Surface winds will
become N/NW at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon in the wake of the
cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MLR