911
FXUS63 KAPX 172004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL
404 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist
  through early evening.

- Rain-free conditions through the end of the week, but rain
  chances look to return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper-level wave continues to pivot through the northern
Great Lakes this afternoon which has allowed scattered showers
and isolated storms to persist. While instability is expected to
wane shortly after sunset, modest instability should continue to
support isolated to widely scattered showers (and perhaps the
occasional storm) through early evening. Though, no severe
weather is expected.

Breezy northwest winds this afternoon will also gradually
subside this evening, but the onshore direction across northern
Lower Michigan will keep waves elevated in the 2 to 4 ft range
through tonight especially along the Lake Michigan shore.
Therefore, moderate swim conditions can be expected at area
beaches until waves subside on Thursday in addition to hazardous
conditions for smaller vessels.

High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday
which will promote rain-free conditions. While winds will remain
out of the north-northeast, speeds are expected to be light
(generally in the 5 to 10 mph range). Though temperatures are
expected to remain in the low to mid-70s araewide despite
scattered cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure is expected to persist over the Great Lakes
through the end of the week and possibly the majority of the
weekend. Therefore, rain chances through Saturday look to be
virtually non-existent with otherwise mostly sunny skies and
gradually warming temperatures into the 80s by Saturday.

Guidance continues to show another upper-level trough digging
into eastern Canada on Sunday which may force a weak frontal
boundary towards the northern UP and eventually Lower Michigan.
As a result, guidance suggests that shower and storm chances may
develop along this boundary as it interacts with the better
moisture forecast to be overhead. However, timing on when
exactly this boundary will move into northern Michigan continues
to vary amongst guidance members with the general consensus
favoring a Monday arrival. Given this uncertainty have decided
to maintain the low-end POPs (around 20%) offered by the NBM for
Sunday and Monday which seem reasonable at this range.

Heading into the middle of next week, guidance shows broader
troughing returning to the Great Lakes which looks to bring
better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Though, details on
timing and coverage of precipitation midweek remains more
uncertain and will obviously be refined with later forecasts.

Yack

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Forecast concerns for the terminals..

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon

- Periods of MVFR ceilings this afternoon and evening

An upper-level disturbance continues to pivot across northern
Michigan this afternoon which has allowed scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms to materialize. Forecast soundings continue
to show modest instability in place which should keep the
coverage of thunderstorms on the lower side for the rest of the
afternoon. Therefore, have decided to maintain just VCSH
mentions in the TAFs but did extend a TEMPO for thunder at KAPN
until 19z to account for the developing showers/storms west of
the terminal. Showers and any storms will wane this evening as
instability subsides leaving dry conditions for the rest of the
forecast period.

Otherwise, SCT to BKN VFR clouds are expected to persist through
the majority of the period. However, pockets of MVFR ceilings
have been observed across the Upper Peninsula and along the
Lake Michigan shore of northern Lower Michigan. While these MVFR
ceilings should be short lived if they make it to the
terminals, the potential for 2000 to 3000 ft clouds is expected
to linger through the evening.

As for winds, breezy northwest winds will persist through 00z
this evening with gusts in the lower 20 kt range. Wind speeds
will subside into the 5 to 10 kt range this evening and remain
as such through the rest of the period with directions out of
the north-northwest.

Yack

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345-347-
     348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344-345.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...