980
FXUS63 KAPX 180355
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1155 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist
  through early evening.

- Rain-free conditions through the end of the week, but rain
  chances look to return next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The core of a sharp 500mb shortwave trof is directly overhead.
That is maintaining some showers east of I-75 in both
peninsulas. This upper trof will gradually progress east
tonight, though a subtle trailing wave digs across Lk Huron Thu
morning. But by then, we should be too dry.

Have stretched out showers in eastern areas deeper into the
night, to a bit past midnight. Cloud cover will also decrease
with time, even in the eastern UP. Min temps will be much cooler
than seen in recent days, from the upper 40s thru the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper-level wave continues to pivot through the northern
Great Lakes this afternoon which has allowed scattered showers
and isolated storms to persist. While instability is expected to
wane shortly after sunset, modest instability should continue to
support isolated to widely scattered showers (and perhaps the
occasional storm) through early evening. Though, no severe
weather is expected.

Breezy northwest winds this afternoon will also gradually
subside this evening, but the onshore direction across northern
Lower Michigan will keep waves elevated in the 2 to 4 ft range
through tonight especially along the Lake Michigan shore.
Therefore, moderate swim conditions can be expected at area
beaches until waves subside on Thursday in addition to hazardous
conditions for smaller vessels.

High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday
which will promote rain-free conditions. While winds will remain
out of the north-northeast, speeds are expected to be light
(generally in the 5 to 10 mph range). Though temperatures are
expected to remain in the low to mid-70s areawide despite
scattered cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure is expected to persist over the Great Lakes
through the end of the week and possibly the majority of the
weekend. Therefore, rain chances through Saturday look to be
virtually non-existent with otherwise mostly sunny skies and
gradually warming temperatures into the 80s by Saturday.

Guidance continues to show another upper-level trough digging
into eastern Canada on Sunday which may force a weak frontal
boundary towards the northern UP and eventually Lower Michigan.
As a result, guidance suggests that shower and storm chances may
develop along this boundary as it interacts with the better
moisture forecast to be overhead. However, timing on when
exactly this boundary will move into northern Michigan continues
to vary amongst guidance members with the general consensus
favoring a Monday arrival. Given this uncertainty have decided
to maintain the low-end POPs (around 20%) offered by the NBM for
Sunday and Monday which seem reasonable at this range.

Heading into the middle of next week, guidance shows broader
troughing returning to the Great Lakes which looks to bring
better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Though, details on
timing and coverage of precipitation midweek remains more
uncertain and will obviously be refined with later forecasts.

Yack

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR.

High pressure in the northern plains will bring drier air to the
region. Skies will continue to clear heading into Thursday.

Nw-nnw winds will be somewhat lighter on Thursday than Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-342-
     344-345.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...WFO LOT
LONG TERM...WFO LOT
AVIATION...JZ