Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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091 FXUS63 KAPX 061114 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 714 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms today. - Rain/storms possible Sunday afternoon, and especially Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing will remain draped across most of the northern CONUS through the duration of the forcast period. An embedded shortwave will work east of the region this morning as subtle ridging slides overhead later this afternoon and evening. In turn, broad low pressure will also depart east underneath favorable forcing aloft with the aforementioned shortwave while high pressure settles in later tonight into Sunday. Forecast Details: Isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms today -- A few light showers may persist across parts of northern Michigan this morning, along with low clouds and patchy fog development. The main focus will be later this morning into this evening where isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms will be possible. Despite heights gradually rising through the day as aforementioned shortwave troughing exits, enough support in the vicinity of the surface cyclone should exist to kick off at least a few showers/storms -- with the best chances coming along and east of I-75, especially near Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay. Forecast soundings display a few hundred joules of MLCAPE with a subsidence inversion around 600mb. Very weak flow from the surface to 500mb will help keep any activity disorganized, and aforementioned limited buoyancy will struggle to support any stronger storms. Activity should diminish this evening as diurnal heating ceases and high pressure begins to work into the Great Lakes. Highs in the 70s are anticipated today with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Broad troughing aloft overtaking the bulk of the northern CONUS...with a nice upper low swirling down into eastern MT attm...and punch of PV energy lifting out of the Upper Great Lakes. Attendant occluded surface low with this latter feature over central MI...with warm front extending largely eastward into New England...and a surface cold front draping back into central TX. Bulk of the deepest moisture (pwats greater than 1.5 inches) along and south of this latter BCZ over the southern US. Shortwave ridging aloft just to our northwest...with cooler air at 850mb beneath this. Meanwhile, some theta-e advection from Ontario/Quebec into the Upper Great Lakes north of the surface low. Low level moisture still hanging on over the Great Lakes tonight, evidenced by low ceilings and fog over the area, given nebulous flow in the wake of abundant rainfall (some areas received 1-2 inches of rain in under an hour last evening!). Upper disturbance will be slow to rotate out today...with a bit of shortwave ridging trying to slip into the region late in the day, leading to some fog potential tonight into Sunday morning. However...will be watching additional energy dig into the Upper Midwest already going into Sunday, bringing warm advection and potential for attendant activity into the Upper Great Lakes, especially during the afternoon. Attm...appears this upstream energy will stall for a time over the central US, leaving us in southwesterly flow as Beryl makes landfall along the western Gulf Coast...eventually attempting to slip in going into Tuesday as the southern extent of this BCZ tries to grab onto Beryl. Some uncertainty in how this happens -- whether Beryl will be quicker to eject northeastward along the boundary going into midweek next week, or whether it will just barely miss the proverbial fingers of the northern stream trough and have to hang out in the southern US for a bit longer. For now...does appear that a breakdown of the upstream pattern will ultimately keep things in motion going into midweek...with ridging trying to spread eastward over the central continent going into mid/late week...which could keep things a little more unsettled here in the Upper Midwest if it comes to fruition (as well as lead to a potential warming trend). A lot of details to sort out between now and then, though...particularly with the tropical system in play. Stay tuned. Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain/storms possible Sunday afternoon and especially Monday into Tuesday... Sunday afternoon...think it will be another one of those popcorn shower/storm days. Not necessarily the greatest setup, particularly noting that model soundings suggest some mid-level layers could preclude better updraft development...but do think it`ll be another day where we`ll need to keep eyes to the skies, especially if outdoor plans are had...even if only to stay dry. Do think we may need to keep an eye out for some showers to slip in from the west on warm advection late in the day into Sunday night, though not expecting much of anything impressive by any means attm. Best potential for anything to pop (or try to pop) would likely be along the lake breezes, particularly the Lake Huron lake breeze, where convergence would be maximized with general (albeit weak) southwesterly background flow. Monday...better moisture and subsequent instability enter the region, along with slightly better deep-layer shear...suggesting that storm potential will be greater than Sunday...and some storms could attempt to become stronger. A bit of PV slipping over the region Monday could help the cause of storms, as it could provide additional forcing. Further...this could focus storm development, which, given the aforementioned increasing moisture (pwats approaching or exceeding 1.5 inches again). Noting that some storms yesterday ended up going every which way based on outflow boundaries...and also ended up a little bit slower moving in some cases, do think we have cause for some localized heavy rain concerns again (particularly noting that some localized areas under the slow moving cells produced upwards of 2 inches of rain in less than a half hour... and this with pwats closer to 1 inch per our morning/evening soundings). Will have to see if this idea of better focused/more persistent and/or slow-moving storms actually comes to fruition...but certainly not impossible that some localized areas could end up with over an inch of additional rainfall Monday...particularly if the pattern across the northern CONUS trends slower, depending on how it reacts/interacts with Beryl coming onshore near Texas. Another round of storms appears possible again Tuesday as another wave slips through the region...though details not very clear attm, again, at least in part related to Beryl. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 LIFR/IFR CIGs are expected to linger for another hour or two across northern Michigan before they begin to lift through the morning hours. Dense fog across -- primarily across the eastern U.P. -- will also begin to dissipate over the next several hours as diurnal heating increases. Flight conditions look to improve to VFR by late morning/early afternoon for most locations. Mainly light north/northwest winds between 5-10 kts are anticipated today before going calm tonight. With clearing cloud cover, efficient radiational cooling will support patchy FG/BR development again tonight. Confidence is highest at MBL and CIU, where it has been included in the TAFs at this time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...DJC