639
FXUS63 KAPX 182301
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
701 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal weather concerns tonight/Friday under the influence of
  high pressure.

- Isolated shower/storm chances this weekend across northeast
  lower and eastern upper in conjunction with lake breeze
  processes.

- Temperatures remain seasonable to perhaps slightly above
  normal through much of next week, with continued occasional
  shower/storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:  Positive tilt long wave trough extends
from northern Quebec southwest into the northeast quadrant of the
CONUS...downstream of a full-latitude ridge from the Four Corners
north across western Canada to north of the Arctic Circle (+2 to +3
sigma 500mb height anomaly over Alberta/Northwest Territories).
There are a couple of short wave troughs within the western ridge
over Washington and another digging southeast into Manitoba.  Deep
layer north/northwest flow across the upper Lakes along with deep
layer thermal troughing.  Broad area of high pressure has settled in
across the Midwest/upper Lakes (1024mb)...and is forecast to remain
in place through Friday.  A cold front will begin to push south
toward Lake Superior as an anomalously strong upper low works its
way south along the east side of Hudson Bay Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Minimal weather concerns tonight/Friday under the influence of high
pressure: Today`s little cumulus "explosion" should continue to thin
out in coverage through late afternoon as dew points have been
mixing downward.  Should be good radiational cooling conditions
overnight especially across northern Lower as winds drop off and
clouds thin outside of some Ci drifting in from the north.  Lows
tonight mostly in the 50s with a few upper 40s...temperatures should
moderate a couple degrees warmer on Friday with temperatures getting
back to within a couple degrees either side of 80 (which is normal
for this time of year). Only real cloud cover expected to be diurnal
clouds across Upper Michigan enhanced along colliding lake breeze
boundaries.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Current analysis of guidance progs a
climatologically unseasonable cutoff low lazily drifting
eastward through Atlantic Canada amid a longwave troughing
regime over northeastern North America (axis centered over New
England), complete with impressive WSW - ENE oriented 100-120kt
jet streak over New England as well. Couple this with surface
high pressure slowly drifting south across the region, should
limit much in the way of moisture return to the region. Pattern
aloft for northern Michigan shows a split flow regime as flow
from an amplified thermal ridge in the western CONUS directs
south over the central Plains, while we are closer to the
peripheral cyclonic flow around the troughing regime to our
northeast. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will
yield stronger return flow to our south, making an attempt to
draw in much deeper moisture with time, but will likely have
issues getting much past the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
as a stationary front slowly plods its way northward from the
Deep South. Result will be occasional bouts of weaker cyclonic
flow across northern Michigan as height disturbances crest the
ridge and leak into the primary northern stream flow around the
Canadian longwave... bringing occasional shower and storm
chances to our neck of the woods throughout much of the long
term forecast, but with temperatures largely hovering near or
perhaps slightly above normal in the 80s.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Weekend and Beyond: Overall, looks like just enough forcing from
that trough to our northeast and modest moisture return may be just
enough to initiate some largely disorganized diurnal convection over
the course of the weekend, though most will remain completely dry,
particularly across northwest lower. Coverage of this activity is
expected to be on the isolated side. Lacking deeper forcing will
probably suppress severe concerns, but as always, some gusty winds
and lightning may accompany any of these storms. Favorability for
any of this activity will likely be a textbook summertime setup:
with mean west to northwest flow dominating, best convergence axis
along lake breezes will be the best bet... which will be northeast
lower and eastern upper. Temperatures this weekend likely in the
upper 70s to mid 80s during the day, lows in the mid 50s to lower
60s at night. Beyond this weekend, unsettled nature of the forecast
continues, though with gradually increasing coverage in PoPs.
Guidance is trying to hint at a bit of a sharper wave descending
into the region via the longwave troughing flow, which could briefly
increase shower and storm potential across much of the region. After
this, aforementioned moisture return will become a bit more
noticeable as humidity climbs back some... though with dewpoints
largely holding in the 50s to lower 60s. Deeper moisture return
likely becomes bottled up across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys,
leaving us without the threat of more widespread heavier rain, but
more isolated activity. Temperatures next week hold in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s... so while there
will be a touch of an unsettled element to things, shouldn`t be too
ridiculously warm and humid in the grand scheme of things.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions to continue through the period...with just some
passing patchy high level clouds tonight giving way to some
more high based cumulus clouds Friday. Light winds tonight
increase in speed out of the west and southwest on Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB