994
FXUS63 KAPX 190719
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond.

- Small chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Saturday
  into next week, especially across eastern upper and northeast
  lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and
will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region
into tonight.

Forecast: Low-level cold advection has departed eastward,
replaced with neutral thermal advection into tonight. Surface
obs this early morning have shown a touch of fog at a site or
three (MBL and SJX most commonly). There should be little
hindrance to strong surface heating today, and in general am
expecting less cloud cover overall (especially in northern lower
MI). Cu development is more likely in eastern upper, where a
relatively warm Lake MI will contribute low-level moisture.
Maybe, maybe we can muster 100-200j/kg of SbCape in the interior
of eastern upper this afternoon. A stray shower up there this
afternoon isn`t completely out of the question.

Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across
Superior. An associated band of enhanced moisture will result in
increasing cloud cover overnight in eastern upper MI, especially
Chippewa Co. Limited clouds otherwise.

Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines
cooler. Lows tonight also a bit milder, 50s inland to 60-65
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A general uneventful mid-summer pattern is expected to remain in
place across northern Michigan through much if not all of the long
term. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome")
across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in
place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing
across the Great Lakes. This pattern will likely allow for weak
moisture starved northern stream short waves to move through the
flow from time to time, especially Saturday night and Wednesday. The
combination of the weak waves and possible interactions with
afternoon lake breezes in combination with instability generated
from heating of the day could promote the formation of a few
afternoon and early evening showers and storms. This could occur
pretty much any day through the long term portion of the forecast.
However, some areas will likely receive very little in the way of
rainfall (especially across northwest lower). Highs will mainly
range from the upper 70s to low 80s (even a few isolated mid 80s)
with lows generally ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions to continue through the period...with just some
passing patchy high level clouds early this morning giving way
to some more high based cumulus clouds this afternoon. Light
winds this morning will increase in speed out of the west and
southwest through today.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB