579
FXUS64 KAMA 060545
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The upper level pattern remains mostly unchanged from the setup we
have experienced in the previous few days. The 500 mb trough
slowly advances towards the southeast, but our northwest flow
regime should continue through the short term period. New
disturbances from the southern Rockies will provide more support
for thunderstorm activity today and tomorrow. A few mesoscale
parameters will alter the impacts of timing and strength each
day, resulting in dissimilar scenarios on where PoP coverage will
reside.

Today, temperatures are slowly rising across the CWA. Upper 70`s
to mid 80`s are the forecasted highs today, as a BKN cloud deck
overspreads the western Panhandles while some clearing finally
unfolds in the east. Thunderstorm chances have been reduced for
the afternoon and evening timeframe. Instead overnight convection
looks to be the main concern leading into Saturday. The trough
that is setup east of the New Mexico mountain range shows a much
slower progression with storms, so activity should not begin for
Texas until after midnight. Elevated storms are expected early
Saturday morning with enough effective CAPE and limited CIN for
them to continue into sunrise. General thunder is expected with
the bands of storms tonight, with severe probs being quite
limited. Tomorrow, warmer surface temperatures are like area wide.
Upper 80`s and lower 90`s are predicted for high temperatures. A
new shortwave trough should move in from the northwest and
generate a line of storms ahead of it, with the highest
confidence for PoPs and severe probabilities favoring the northern
Panhandles. Storms are progged to exit the region before 7AM
Sunday.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Starting the coming weekend into early next week, our rain chances
continue. Latest 05/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a H500
high build across the Sierra Nevada range with H500 NNW flow into
the Panhandles. This will result in daily diurnal convection
moving SSE from the CO/NM high terrain into portions of the
Panhandles each day. Some storms could be strong to severe with
strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main threats.
Especially on Sunday night into Monday in particular, a cold front
moving south could be the focus for strong to severe storms as it
move south.

Towards the end of the forecast period, the  aforementioned H500
high pressure will shift towards the northern Rockies. With
resultant anemic easterly and northeasterly H500 flow into the
Panhandles, the axis of better moisture transport and overall lift
should stay north of the Panhandles, bringing dry conditions back
to the Panhandles. Temperatures will be below average on Monday
behind the passing front. Otherwise, temperatures will be near
average for the remainder of the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing at all TAF sites and is expected to
continue through tomorrow. Winds will be out of the south to
south-southwest through tomorrow, with sustained speeds around
10-12kts and gusts up to 20kts during the afternoon. It is
possible that KDHT could see a shower or storm overnight, but
confidence is low enough to not include in the forecast at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  66  95  62 /  20  20  20  50
Beaver OK                  92  63  87  60 /  10  30  50  60
Boise City OK              90  61  85  57 /  20  20  20  50
Borger TX                  95  69  98  64 /  10  20  30  60
Boys Ranch TX              93  65  96  62 /  20  20  10  50
Canyon TX                  88  64  95  61 /  10  20  20  40
Clarendon TX               88  67  94  63 /  10  20  30  50
Dalhart TX                 90  61  90  59 /  10  10  10  40
Guymon OK                  91  62  87  58 /  10  30  30  50
Hereford TX                90  65  96  63 /  20  20  10  40
Lipscomb TX                92  66  90  63 /   0  30  50  70
Pampa TX                   89  66  92  61 /  10  20  40  60
Shamrock TX                90  68  94  63 /  10  20  40  60
Wellington TX              91  68  96  64 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...02