119
FXUS64 KAMA 020001
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
701 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Hotter temperatures and storm chances continue through the short
term period. Showers and storms are possible across the western
Panhandles this afternoon and evening as storms move in from NM.
Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will increase into the upper 90s
and up over 100 degrees by peak heating. Additional showers and
storms are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening with higher
chances across the entire area. Some of the storms could be
severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall all
possible.

Early this afternoon, visible satellite imagery shows cumulus
developing across eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle.
Further west, storms are starting to fire off of the higher
terrain near Raton and are starting to slide off to the
east/northeast. Additional showers and storms should form later on
this afternoon into the evening hours as better lift provided by a
shortwave trough moves across the western/northwestern portions of
the CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast for
this area and activity should diminish by around midnight tonight.
Storms are not expected to be severe today, but cannot rule out
some moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

By Tuesday afternoon, the center of the H500 high pressure system
should move off to the east leaving the Panhandles solidly in
southwest to west flow aloft. Closer to the surface, southwest low
level winds extending down to the surface should allow for
stronger WAA during the daytime hours. Surface temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s for the west/northwest with
just over 100 degrees elsewhere. With the southeast having the
higher potential for air temperatures or heat index values at 105
or higher, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for tomorrow
afternoon which includes Palo Duro Canyon State Park. The main
limiting factor for hotter temperatures further north will be a
weak cold front moving down the Plains tomorrow afternoon and the
front may make it to the northern Panhandles by late afternoon.
Along and behind the front, another round of showers and storms
are forecast to develop beginning tomorrow afternoon and
continuing through Wednesday morning. Sufficient instability and
shear look to be in place for a few storms to potentially become
severe, with large hail up to half dollars and wind gusts up to 60
mph. The main concern may become heavy rain and flash flooding by
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. PWAT values are
forecast to be above 1.5 inches across the Panhandles and storms
may potentially train along a cold front as it sits across the
region during this time frame. Will have to keep a close eye on
model trends as guidance currently is not as favorable for heavy
rain, but that could change if some of the high end outlier
rainfall solutions come to fruition.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Typical summertime temperatures will continue through mid week
across the Panhandles before a pattern change occurs and highs
cool back down into the 80s and 90s Friday through this upcoming
weekend. To the delight of all, daily chances for showers and
storms will continue each day during this time frame.

A subtle cooldown is forecast for Wednesday as the weak cold front
ushers in a slightly cooler airmass across the region. Highs
should range from the 80s north to mid to upper 90s south for
high temperatures. Precipitation chances will continue throughout
the day as moisture will still be prevalent across the area and
PVA supplied by shortwaves embedded in the upper level flow should
provide enough lift for at least isolated to scattered showers or
storms. A few of the storms will have the potential to be severe
on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. For Independence Day, highs
should be comparable to those on Wednesday. Another front is
forecast to move over the region on Thursday afternoon. Current
expectation is that the front may be delayed enough for
temperatures to rise into the 90s to potentially 100 before
cooling down behind the front. If the front comes in quicker,
temperatures will need to be bumped down a few degrees over what
is currently in the forecast. Behind the front, breezy north to
northeast winds are expected along with slightly higher moisture.
Wherever the front ends up being located as a subtle disturbance
passes over the area, another round of showers and storms could be
possible during the evening hours on Thursday. Will be keeping a
close watch on this period as this could have impacts on outdoor
activities on Independence Day evening.

Going into Friday through this upcoming weekend, ridging will
build across the western CONUS with troughing over the central US,
keeping the Panhandles underneath west to northwest flow aloft.
Highs on Friday should be the coolest of the upcoming 7 days
before the temperatures slowly rise back up during the weekend.
The daily chances for showers and storms looks to continue through
this time period as disturbances should provide enough lift for
storms to develop and move across portions of the area.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the 00Z TAFs, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to advance east and northeastward across parts of the
northwest and western zones this evening before dissipating later
tonight. Have omitted mention of thunderstorms at KGUY and KDHT
due to low probability of occurrence generally around 20 to 30
percent. It appears precipitation may not make it to KAMA before
dissipating later tonight so did not include in that terminal
site. Will be monitoring radar trends closely this evening in the
event amendments are needed. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop late Tuesday afternoon, and
have omitted mention at any of the sites due to low confidence if
any TAF site will be impacted this far out in time. Finally, a
weak cold front is slated to move across the Oklahoma Panhandle,
including KGUY, Tuesday afternoon with winds becoming north and
northeast.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                76 101  72  94 /   0  30  50  30
Beaver OK                  76 100  68  89 /  10  30  60  20
Boise City OK              68  92  63  87 /  30  30  40  30
Borger TX                  78 105  74  97 /  10  30  60  30
Boys Ranch TX              74 101  71  94 /  10  30  50  30
Canyon TX                  73  99  71  94 /   0  20  50  30
Clarendon TX               76 103  73  97 /   0  20  30  20
Dalhart TX                 69  97  65  91 /  30  30  40  30
Guymon OK                  71  97  66  90 /  20  30  60  20
Hereford TX                73 101  71  96 /  10  20  40  30
Lipscomb TX                78 102  70  93 /   0  30  60  20
Pampa TX                   76 101  71  94 /   0  30  50  20
Shamrock TX                77 103  74 100 /   0  20  20  10
Wellington TX              76 105  75 101 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02