Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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536 FXUS64 KAMA 010525 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Clouds have lingered across the Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles from the early morning convection. This has kept conditions much cooler up there with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s in the Oklahoma Panhandle and some lower 80s in northern Texas Panhandle. Further south, the stalled front from yesterday is quite evident on satellite imagery. It is located roughly along a line from Nara Vista to Panhandle to Allison. Residual cloud debris has left conditions cooler to the north of this line, whereas along and south temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s. Cumulus development has been ongoing through the early afternoon along and south of the boundary and in the last hour or so, some showers and storms have developed in the eastern Panhandle across portions of Gray and Wheeler counties. At this point, we are not expecting these to become severe but this will be something to monitor this evening. Storms that occur this afternoon should diminish by sunset with convection not expected to linger overnight. Global models are in agreement that the mid level ridge should once again meander its way toward the region, but remain centered just to our east. This will allow us to have the effects of the increasing temperatures but still open the door to some brief relief in spots due to showers and storms. Temperatures tomorrow should approach the century mark but many locations likely will far short. Of course, this won`t apply to places like Palo Duro Canyon, which should see temperatures exceed 100 degrees but currently falling short of Heat Advisory level. To our west, an upper trough will approach, bringing showers and storms to New Mexico. By late afternoon, several models and hi-res CAMs indicate that they could meander across the state line into my western forecast area, especially as the low level jet begins to kick in during the evening hours. Have included low/slight chance POPs in the forecast to account for this potential. Culin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The upper right will begin to shift back to the east during the day Tuesday. Low level winds will shift out of the southwest, increasing low level temperatures on Tuesday to near 40C. This will equate to highs in the low 100s across much of the region. Will be watching out for potential Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon especially on Tuesday as temperatures will exceed 105 degrees in this location. It looks like the heat peaks on Tuesday as another front shifts south toward the Panhandles starting Tuesday night. This will increase our rain chances Tuesday afternoon/night through the week. As it stands, we are under a marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. With such hot temperatures in place Tuesday afternoon, any storm that develops would have potential to bring damaging wind gusts given forecast DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. Another front looks to drop south for Thursday night into Friday, remaining in the area for Saturday and keeping rain chances in the forecast during this time period. Since this is a holiday week, and many outdoor activities are in play, residents should keep aware of the weather situation heading through the week as there are daily chances for rain and storms in the forecast. Severity will be assessed through the week but would assume there will be potential during this time period. Culin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Surface winds look to less during this overnight period with all terminal seeing speed down around 10 to 15 kt. Winds do look to eventually pick back up tomorrow thanks to a 850mb jet overhead. KGUY will be the first to see this increase with gust upwards of 30 kt possible at the terminals by the afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms also are present tomorrow evening with KDHT having the best chances of any impacts. However, confidence is too low for any mention at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold through the overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 75 101 73 94 / 10 10 30 30 Beaver OK 76 101 69 90 / 10 20 40 30 Boise City OK 70 95 64 86 / 30 20 30 30 Borger TX 78 106 74 97 / 10 20 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 75 102 71 94 / 10 20 30 30 Canyon TX 73 99 71 93 / 10 10 30 30 Clarendon TX 74 100 74 97 / 0 10 20 20 Dalhart TX 70 99 66 91 / 10 20 30 30 Guymon OK 74 99 67 88 / 20 20 40 30 Hereford TX 73 101 71 95 / 10 10 30 30 Lipscomb TX 77 103 72 95 / 0 10 30 20 Pampa TX 75 101 72 95 / 0 20 30 20 Shamrock TX 75 103 75 100 / 0 10 10 10 Wellington TX 76 103 77 101 / 0 0 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...11