658
FXUS64 KAMA 041803
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A cold front moving southward at about 30 mph will move into the
northwest Oklahoma Panhandle by around sunrise and then it should
exit the southeast Texas Panhandle by early afternoon.  Any showers
and thunderstorms that may occur with the front will be in the far
southeast Texas Panhandle and these will likely be behind the front
early this evening as storms that develop over the Low Rolling
Plains will move northeast and clip our far southeast corner. Really
think that the front will clear the area and any severe
thunderstorms will be southeast of our area along and southeast of
the front.  But if a robust storm can develop in our area, then
damaging winds will be the main threat.  North winds will be breezy
behind the front with speeds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Low level moisture is expected to surge back north late tonight to
help produce showers and thunderstorms after midnight, mainly across
the southern Texas Panhandle.  We will see if this can happen.  If
the front goes much farther south than the models have it, then the
chances of getting enough moisture back for showers and
thunderstorms will be lower.

Winds turn more southeasterly on Friday and this should help low
level moisture to move back across the region.  This moisture
coupled with an upper level short wave trough moving southeast
across the Panhandles may enough of a trigger to bring showers and
thunderstorms to the western halves of the Panhandles.

Highs today will range from the lower 80`s in the northwest to
around 100 degrees in the far southeast.  Highs on Friday are
expected to range from the lower 80`s in the far west to the upper
80`s in the southeast TExas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Active weather looks to remain possible as we head into the
holiday weekend thanks to a strong upper-level high building over
the Great Basin. Initially models expect this high will stay just
east of the Panhandle, which will shift our flow to a more
northwesterly direction for Saturday and Sunday. Generally this
flow is ideal for storms coming off the southern Rockies to move
across the Panhandles during the afternoon and evening time. In
addition to this, having northwesterly flow also makes it easier
for the expected short-wave troughs to move across the area and
provide extra insatiability for storms. As it stands, Saturday has
one of the better chances for activity, with models seeing the
first of these short-waves move across that afternoon.

However, this activity may not last as long as the latest NBM
suggests. Last runs for the GFS and ECMWF dare currently seeing
the 500mb high grow even stronger once we get into the new week
with potential to expand outward as we head into the middle of
next week. Should this growth come to pass, then it is possible
that flow will be more northerly than northwesterly as the
Panhandles start to fall under the upper-level high pressure
system. Once that occurs it will be much hard for short-waves to
move across the Panhandles as well as introduce much drier air at
the upper- level that all but cap the area and keep us dry. This
growth in the upper-level high, would also change temperature
outlooks for the week with many locations potentially moving
closer to the triple digits rather than the projected 80s and 90s.

Regardless, there is still not enough confidence to really go
against the current active pattern that NBM is suggesting as this
growth has only been seen in the last few runs. For now, look for
showers and thunderstorm to be a possibility clear into next
weekend with cooler temperatures following the second week of
July.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

TAFs are VFR for the onset of the period. Later tonight, likely
after the midnight hour, showers and thunderstorms may impact all
TAF sites and continue through the morning hours. PROB30 groups
have been introduced for all sites, with varying times of their
arrival. Low clouds may impact AMA around 09Z alongside the
potential precipitation. MVFR conditions are progged to last until
the end of the period at this time.

Breezy, northerly winds continue at all terminals through the
afternoon and evening today, while slowly veering northeast.
Eventually, those conditions will die down by the night time
hours and winds should remain light through the rest of the
period.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  84  62  89 /  50  50  30  30
Beaver OK                  63  85  62  90 /  30  20  10  20
Boise City OK              58  82  57  89 /  50  20  30  30
Borger TX                  65  89  64  94 /  50  50  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              62  85  62  93 /  50  50  40  30
Canyon TX                  62  82  59  89 /  50  50  40  30
Clarendon TX               65  83  62  88 /  50  50  20  30
Dalhart TX                 58  83  58  91 /  50  40  40  30
Guymon OK                  60  85  58  90 /  50  50  30  30
Hereford TX                63  84  61  91 /  50  50  40  30
Lipscomb TX                64  87  63  91 /  40  40  10  20
Pampa TX                   63  85  62  89 /  50  50  20  30
Shamrock TX                66  87  63  91 /  50  50  10  20
Wellington TX              67  88  64  92 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55